{"msg": "664\nAXNT20 KNHC 241636\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1619 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue \nto develop across the northwestern zones today as strong high \npressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low \npressure deepens near the southern Bahamas southwest of a cold front \nalong 30N moving slowly southeastward into the area. This setup is \nexpected to induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds \nand rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching gale- force over \nmuch of the waters north of 28N and between 60W and 75W early Sun \nthrough Sun night. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda \nto the central Bahamas by Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very \nslowly through mid week. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these \ndangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to \navoid the affected areas.  Please, see the latest NWS High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall Event in the North Caribbean: A mid to upper level\ntrough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical\nmoisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and \nCaicos Islands through Mon. By mid-week, the trough is forecast \nto weaken while moving eastward into the central Atlantic. Heavy \nrainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening \nflash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and \nthe International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W \nand extends southwestward to 10N32.5W. The ITCZ extends from \n10N39W to 08N59W. A surface trough is analyzed along 36W from 07N\nto 16N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \ndepicted from 05.5N to 20N between 20W and 38W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 13N between 38W and \n50W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge over \nthe Gulf waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between this \nridge and a trough E of the Bahamas is supporting moderate to \nfresh NE to E winds basin-wide along with moderate seas, except \nslight over the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz. \nFor the forecast, a broad ridge extends over most of the eastern \nUnited States and into the northern Gulf, supporting mainly \nmoderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across most of the Gulf \nregion. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure \nand low pressure forecast to deepen near the southern Bahamas will\nbring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern \nGulf, including the Florida Straits this evening through Tue.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, and Jamaica.\nUpper-level diffluent flow over the central basin supports \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms between eastern\nCuba and Jamaica and the central Carribbean. The E Pacific \nmonsoon supports similar convective activity over the SW \nCaribbean. With a broad ridge over the Gulf of America, N to NE \nwinds have reached moderate speeds in the NW basin W of 81W, \nincluding the Yucatan Channel. Moderate N winds are also offshore \nNicaragua. Seas in both the SW and NW Caribbean are slight. The \nAzores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic subtropical \nwaters, which is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds E of \n74.5W where seas are moderate to 7 ft. \nFor the forecast, a mid to upper level trough over Florida and NW\nCaribbean will shift very slowly eastward through Mon and support\nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north- \ncentral Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface\ntrough over the SE Bahamas extends southwestward across the \ncentral and SW Caribbean, and will support moderate or weaker \nwinds, and slight to moderate seas west of 76W through today, and \nmoderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas east of 76W. \nStrong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build southward \nacross Florida and the Gulf of America through the weekend and \nlead to fresh N to NE winds and building seas across the western \nCaribbean. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan \nChannel Mon through Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain\nevent over the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.\nA surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 24N69W \nacross central Hispaniola into the north-central Caribbean. \nNumerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 20N\nto 31N between 62W and 73W. NE of this broad area of low \npressure, a stationary front extends from 31N59W to 27N74W. This front\nis also supporting the convection mentioned above. The remainder \nsubtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High \nridge, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of \n50W, except locally strong in the vicinity of the Canary Islands\nand near Cape Verde. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are to the \nnorth of the frontal boundary along with moderate to rough seas \nto 11 ft. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will\ncontinue to develop across the northwestern zones today as strong\nhigh pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low\npressure deepens near the southern Bahamas southwest of a cold \nfront along 30N moving slowly southeastward into the area. This \nsetup is expected to induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE\nto E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching \ngale- force over much of the waters north of 28N and between 60W \nand 75W early Sun through Sun night. The front is expected to \nstall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon, with winds \nand seas diminishing very slowly through mid week. Mariners are \nurged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and \ntake the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas. \n\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221556297853927426", "issued": "2026-10-24T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221556297853927426"}