{"msg": "208\nAXPZ20 KNHC 241539\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1530 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Vance is centered near 12.9N 103.0W, or about 300 nm \nSW of Acapulco, Mexico at 24/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at\n5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas \nare near 35 ft or 11 m. Satellite imagery shows that the \nappearance of Vance has deteriorated a bit during the past few \nhours, likely due to the combined effects of colder sea surface \ntemperatures near the center and increasing southwesterly shear.\nNumerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the \ncenter in the NE quadrant, within 90 nm of the center in the SE \nquadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and \nwithin 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Vance is forecast\nto maintain a slow motion toward the north-northwest through the\nweekend. Gradual weakening is expected through Sun. Some re- \nintensification will be possible beginning Sun night, or on Mon. \nSwell generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of \nsouthern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into \nnext week. The swell is likely to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting \nminimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of\nTehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas as were confirmed by \novernight satellite scatterometer data.  Winds will continue to \npulse through likely Mon night with a tight pressure gradient \nremaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon\nhours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to across\nsouthern Panama, and continues to 08N82W to 07N85W and to\n09N94W. It resumes to the SW of Vance at 07N112W to 05N120W to \n05N132W and to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is from 01N to 07N between 85W and 94W, and within 180\nnm north of the trough between 130W-135W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 80W-85W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh\nwinds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending \nsouthward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas.\nGentle to moderate winds are found across the remainder of the \nwaters, with slight seas are over the Gulf of California, and \nmoderate seas across the remainder of the waters away from Vance \nand the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 13.6N 103.3W\nthis evening with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to\nnear 14.6N 103.6W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt \ngusts to 100 kt, to near 15.5N 104.0W Sun evening, then begin to\nre-intensify as it moves to near 16.0N 104.3W Mon morning with \nmaximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 16.3N 104.4W\nMon evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, \nthen begin to weaken as it moves to near 16.7N 104.4W Tue morning\nwith maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Vance is forecast\nto move to near 17.7N 104.5W early on Wed with maximum sustained\nwinds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Meanwhile, winds will continue to pulse\nto gale-force likely through Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec\nas a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, then pulsing to\nfresh to strong through at least the middle of next week. Moderate\nto fresh northwest to north winds offshore Baja California will \nlinger early this morning before diminishing. Rough seas in \nnortherly swells offshore Baja California Norte will briefly \nspread across those waters today, subsiding tonight. Moderate or \nweaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away\nfrom Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight \nseas in the Gulf of California.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are \nover and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally \nfresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are between \nEcuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds and moderate seas\nprevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, except for \nslight seas near the coast of Colombia.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Rough seas in southerly swell and moderate to fresh \nwinds will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands \nthrough today. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will \nprevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Hurricane \nVance.\nModerate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and moderate \nto rough seas in a northerly swell are from 10N to 20N and west \nof about 123W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker along \nwith moderate seas away from Vance.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 13.6N 103.3W\nthis evening with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to\nnear 14.6N 103.6W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt\ngusts to 100 kt, to near 15.5N 104.0W Sun evening, then begin to\nre-intensify as it moves to near 16.0N 104.3W Mon morning with \nmaximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 16.3N 104.4W\nMon evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, \nthen begin to weaken as it moves to near 16.7N 104.4W Tue morning\nwith maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Vance is \nforecast to move to near 17.7N 104.5W early on Wed with maximum \nsustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Meanwhile, locally fresh winds\nwill diminish, and rough seas will subside over the west- \ncentral waters during the morning. North swell producing rough \nseas have begun to propagate to the south of 30N over the north- \ncentral waters. However, they are forecast to subside tonight. \nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist \nelsewhere. Swells generated from a frontal system just WNW of the\ndiscussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late\nin the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, a new \nset of southerly swell is expected to spread into the south- \ncentral waters by the middle of next week building seas to a \nrough state over the waters south of about 06N between 108W and \n128W by late Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221545072594878466", "issued": "2026-10-24T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221545072594878466"}