{"msg": "312\nAXNT20 KNHC 241051\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1020 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will develop\nas high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and \nlow pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas along a trough or \ndeveloping frontal boundary. This synoptic setup is expected to \ninduce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds and \nrough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force \nover much of the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W tonight \nthrough Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these \ndangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to\navoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall Event in the North Caribbean: A mid to upper level\ntrough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical\nmoisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and \nCaicos Islands through Mon. By mid-week, the trough is forecast \nto weaken while moving eastward into the central Atlantic. Heavy \nrainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening \nflash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and \nthe International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W \nto 10N23W. The ITCZ extends from 10N23W to 10N29W, and resumes \nfrom 09N39W to 07N58W. A surface trough is analyzed along 37W \nfrom 11N to 20N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is from 05N to 20N between 14W and 38W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 40W and\n55W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge over \nthe Gulf waters N of 21N. The pressure gradient between this \nridge and a trough E of the Bahamas is supporting moderate to\nfresh NE to E winds basin-wide along with moderate seas, except\nslight over the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz. \nFor the forecast, the tightening of the pressure gradient between\nthe high pressure and low pressure forecast to deepen near the \nsouthern Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough \nseas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits from \nthis evening through Tue. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, and Jamaica.\nUpper-level diffluent flow over the central basin supports \nscattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms over the \nnorth-central Caribbean while a surface trough along 78W and the E\nPacific monsoon support similar convective activity over the SW\nCaribbean. With a broad ridge over the Gulf of America, northerly\nwinds have reached moderate speeds in the NW basin W of 83W,\nincluding the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh N winds\nare also offshore Nicaragua. Seas in both the SW and NW Caribbean\nare slight. The Azores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic\nsubtropical waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh ESE\nwinds E of 74W where seas are moderate to 7 ft.  \nFor the forecast, a mid to upper level trough over the eastern \nGulf of America and NW Caribbean will support scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central \nCaribbean and Windward Passage through Sun night into Mon. \nMeanwhile, the broad trough over the central and SW Caribbean \nwill support moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas\nwest of 76W through today, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds \nand moderate seas east of 76W. Looking ahead, expect fresh N to NE\nwinds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W\nearly next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Expect\nrough seas and large N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon and \nTue. Little change is expected elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain\nevent over the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.\nA surface trough extends from 29N67W to a 1012 mb low pres near \n23N69W across central Hispaniola into the north-central Caribbean.\nNumerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N to 31N\nbetween 64W and 73W. NE of this broad area of low pressure, a cold\nfront extends from 31N53W to 29N65W. Both the front and a pre-\nfrontal trough are supporting scattered showers N of 24N between\n57W and 62W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the\ninfluence of the Azores High ridge, which is supporing moderate to\nfresh NE to E winds E of 40W, except locally strong in the\nvicinity of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to\nthe north and west of the broad area of low pressure E of the\nBahamas along with moderate to rough seas to 8 ft.  \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will\ncontinue to develop across the northwestern zones today as high \npressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low \npressure deepens near the southern Bahamas southwest of a cold \nfront moving slowly southeastward into the area. This setup is \nexpected to induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE to E \nwinds and rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching gale-force\nover much of the waters north of 28N and between 60W and 75W \nearly Sun through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert \nto these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary \nprecautions to avoid the affected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221488382424809474", "issued": "2026-10-24T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221488382424809474"}