{"msg": "889\nAXPZ20 KNHC 240844\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0730 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Vance is centered near 12.4N 102.8W at 24/0900 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with\ngusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft or 11.0 m. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is within 75 nm of the center, \nexcept 60 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated \nstrong convection is also noted within 420 nm in the NE quadrant,\nelsewhere in a band between 180 nm and 570 nm in the SE \nsemicircle, 90 nm in the W quadrant, and 180 nm elsewhere in the \nNW quadrant. Vance is moving toward the north-northwest, and \nthis motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Some \nfluctuations in intensity are possible today, followed by a \ngradual weakening trend beginning tonight and continuing through \nSun. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the \ncoast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and \ncontinue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. Please read the latest \nHIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the \nlatest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting \nminimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of\nTehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Recent ASCAT\nscatterometer data confirmed these winds. Winds will continue to\npulse through likely Mon night with a tight pressure gradient \nremaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon\nhours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 07N90W to SE of Vance\nnear 09N99W. It resumes SW of Vance at 09N104W to 06N117W to\n08N124W to 03N138W. The ITCZ extends from 03N138W to 04N140W. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from\n00N to 07N between 80W and 94W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh\nwinds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending \nsouthward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas.\nGentle to moderate winds are found across the remainder of the \nwaters, with slight seas are over the Gulf of California, and \nmoderate seas across the remainder of the waters away from Vance \nand the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 13.1N 103.1W this\nafternoon, 14.3N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.2N 103.7W Sun afternoon,\n15.9N 104.1W Mon morning, 16.2N 104.2W Mon afternoon, and 16.6N \n104.3W Tue morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to 17.5N 104.4W early Wed. Meanwhile, winds will continue\nto pulse to gale force likely through Mon night over the Gulf of\nTehuantepec with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, \nthen pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle of \nnext week. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California \nwill linger early this morning before diminishing. Rough seas in \nnortherly swells offshore Baja California Norte will briefly \nspread across those waters today, subsiding tonight. Moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from \nVance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in \nthe Gulf of California.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate NE winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the \nGulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and \nmoderate to rough seas are between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nIslands. Gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across \nthe discussion waters, except slight seas nearshore Colombia.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Rough seas in southerly swell and moderate to fresh \nwinds will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands \nthrough today. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will \nprevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Hurricane \nVance.\nModerate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas \nin northerly swells are from 10N to 20N and W of 123W. \nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas away\nfrom Vance.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 13.1N 103.1W this\nafternoon, 14.3N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.2N 103.7W Sun afternoon,\n15.9N 104.1W Mon morning, 16.2N 104.2W Mon afternoon, and 16.6N \n104.3W Tue morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to 17.5N 104.4W early Wed. Meanwhile, locally fresh winds\nand rough seas over the W-central waters will diminish and \nsubside through the early morning. Rough northerly swells will \npush S of 30N in the N-central waters around sunrise today, \nsubsiding tonight. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nwill persist elsewhere. Swells generated from a frontal system \njust WNW of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE \nof 30N140W late in the weekend into early next week. Looking \nahead, a new set of southerly swell will push into the S-central \nwaters by the middle of next week building seas to rough across \nthe waters S of 06N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221463509195751426", "issued": "2026-10-24T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221463509195751426"}