{"msg": "328\nAXPZ20 KNHC 240248\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sat Oct 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0020 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Vance is centered near 12.0N 102.5W at 24/0300 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with\ngusts to 120 kt. Seas are peaking near 35 ft or 10.5 m. \nNumerous moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm of the \ncenter, except 60 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate and \nisolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 510 nm in \nthe NE quadrant, 360 nm in the S semicircle, and 270 nm in the NW\nquadrant. Vance is moving toward the north-northwest, and this \nmotion is expected to continue through the weekend. Some \nadditional strengthening is possible through tonight. However, \ngradual weakening is forecast to begin by Sat. Swells generated \nby Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of\nsouthern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into \nnext week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and intensifying Hurricane Vance is \nsupporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will\ncontinue to pulse tonight through likely Mon night with a tight\npressure gradient remaining in place. Please read the latest \nHigh Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further\ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11.5N73W to SE of Vance at\n09N95W. It resumes west of Vance at 08N105W to 06N113W. The \nITCZ extends from 06N113W to 07N118W to 03N134W to 05N140W. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from \n01S to 08N between 80W and 91.5W, from 01N to 05N between 110W \nand 115W, and from 03N to 08.5N between 127W and 138W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh\nwinds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending \nsouthward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas.\nSimilar winds are found in the central and southern portions of\nthe Gulf of California nearshore mainland Mexico. Gentle to \nmoderate winds are found across the remainder of the waters, with \nslight to moderate seas are over the Gulf of California, and\nmoderate seas across the remainder of the waters away from Vance\nand the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 12.8N 102.8W Sat morning, \n13.8N 103.1W Sat evening, 14.8N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.8N 103.8W \nSun evening, 16.3N 104.0W Mon morning, and 16.8N 104.2W Mon \nevening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to \n17.6N 104.3W late Tue. Meanwhile, winds will continue to pulse to\ngale force tonight through likely Mon night over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, \nthen pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle of \nnext week. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California \nwill linger tonight before diminishing. Rough seas in northerly \nswells offshore Baja California Norte will spread across those \nwaters late tonight through Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of \nCalifornia. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas, are over \nand downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh\nsoutherly winds and moderate to rough seas are south of the\nEquator between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds\nand moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion \nwaters, except slight seas nearshore Colombia.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Rough seas in southerly swell and moderate to fresh \nwinds will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands \nthrough early Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nwill prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Hurricane \nVance.\nModerate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas \nin northerly swells are from 10N to 20N and W of 123W. \nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas away\nfrom Vance.\nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 12.8N 102.8W Sat morning,\n13.8N 103.1W Sat evening, 14.8N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.8N 103.8W\nSun evening, 16.3N 104.0W Mon morning, and 16.8N 104.2W Mon \nevening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to \n17.6N 104.3W late Tue. Meanwhile, locally fresh winds and rough \nseas over the W-central waters will diminish and subside through \nthe remainder of this evening. Rough northerly swells will push S\nof 30N in the N-central waters by early Sat, subsiding Sat \nevening. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist \nelsewhere. Swell generated from a frontal system just WNW of the \ndiscussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late \nin the weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, a new set of \nsoutherly swell will push into the S-central waters by the middle\nof next week building seas to rough across the waters S of 06N \nbetween 105W and 130W by late Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221393587071942658", "issued": "2026-10-24T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221393587071942658"}