{"msg": "940\nAXPZ20 KNHC 232049\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2045 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Vance is centered near 11.2N 102.3W at 23/2100 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110\nkt. Seas are peaking near 33 ft or 10.5 m. Numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from \n03N to 16N between 95W and 106W. Vance is moving toward the \nnorth- northwest, and this motion is expected to continue through\nthe weekend. Steady intensification will continue during the \nnext 24 hours, and Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane \ntonight. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin \naffecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern \nMexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are\nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting \nminimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of\nTehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale\nforce tonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further \nintensifies. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by \nthe National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N95W. It resumes west\nof Vance near 09N105W to 06N113W. The ITCZ extends from 06N113W \nto 04N135W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 00N to 09N and east of 90W, and from 00N\nto 07N between 125W and 140W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh\nwinds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending \nsouthward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas. \nGentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas are over \nthe Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas \nare elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 11.9N 102.6W Sat morning, \n12.9N 103.0W Sat afternoon, 13.9N 103.3W Sun morning, 14.9N \n103.6W Sun afternoon, 15.7N 103.9W Mon morning, and 16.1N 104.1W \nMon afternoon. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves \nto near 16.8N 104.2W Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, winds will pulse \nto gale force tonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance \nfurther intensifies with a tight pressure gradient over the \nregion. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California Sur\nwill pulse and expand to across the Baja California waters \nthrough tonight before diminishing. Rough seas in northerly \nswells offshore Baja California Norte will spread across those \nwaters tonight through Sat. Moderate seas will prevail elsewhere \naway from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except slight in the\nGulf of California. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are over \nand downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate winds, and moderate\nto rough seas, are near the Galapagos Islands, and between the\nGalapagos Islands and Ecuador. Gentle winds and moderate seas \nprevail elsewhere across the discussion waters.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Rough seas in southerly swell, and moderate to fresh \nwinds, will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands \nthrough early Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nwill prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Hurricane \nVance.\nModerate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas \nin northerly swells are from 10N to 20N and W of 120W. \nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 11.9N 102.6W Sat morning, \n12.9N 103.0W Sat afternoon, 13.9N 103.3W Sun morning, 14.9N \n103.6W Sun afternoon, 15.7N 103.9W Mon morning, and 16.1N 104.1W \nMon afternoon. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves \nto near 16.8N 104.2W Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh winds and \nrough seas over the W-central waters will decrease through the \nevening. Rough northerly swells will push S of 30N in the \nN-central waters Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nwill persist elsewhere. Swell generated from a frontal system \njust WNW of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE \nof 30N140W late in the weekend into early next week. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221323016063549442", "issued": "2026-10-23T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221323016063549442"}