{"id": "1221321135451340802", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-23T21:00:00Z", "msg": "629\nWTPZ42 KNHC 232040\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Vance Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026\n300 PM CST Fri Oct 23 2026\n\nVance has become better organized since the last advisory with the \nformation of a well-defined eye inside the central dense overcast. \nSatellite intensity estimates have increased to the 83-104 kt \nrange, and based on these data the initial intensity is increased \nto 90 kt. Although the central features of the hurricane are better \ndefined, the outer banding seen earlier has become fragmented, and \narc clouds that suggest the presence of dry air are seen southwest \nof the CDO.\n\nThe intensity forecast is a low confidence roller coaster ride. The \neye of Vance is moving over a pool of water featuring both colder \nsea surface temperatures (near 27C) and reduced oceanic heat \ncontent. This should soon bring the current intensification to a \nhalt, although the intensity forecast calls for Vance to become a \nmajor hurricane before that happens. The center will be near or over \nthe cold pool through 48 h, and during this time southwesterly \nvertical shear should increase over the hurricane. This combination \nshould cause weakening, and it is possible that Vance could weaken \nmore than forecast during this period.  After 48 h, Vance should \nmove north of the cold pool, and the official forecast at that time \ncalls for some re-intensification, following the scenario shown by \nthe HAFS models. By 96-120 h, an additional increase in shear and \npossible land interaction should cause the hurricane to weaken yet \nagain.  As noted in the previous advisory, a track to the right of \nthe forecast track will keep the center over the colder water for a \nlonger time, while a track to the left would reduce how much time \nthe center spends over the cold pool. \n\nAfter the westward jog seen earlier today, Vance has resumed a \nnorthwestward motion of 325/4 kt.  The hurricane is currently being \nsteered by a weak mid-level ridge over eastern Mexico and the \neastern Pacific, and later in the forecast period it will come under \nthe influence of a large mid- to upper-level trough over the western \nUnited States as well as the adjacent portions of northern Mexico \nand the northeastern Pacific. While the dynamical models agree on \nthe general synoptic pattern, the track forecast is complicated by \nthe possibilities of how strong and vertically stacked Vance will \nbe. A stronger and more vertically stacked storm, especially as \ndepicted in the GFS, will likely move slowly toward the \nnorth-northwest and north during the forecast period. On the other \nhand, the UKMET and Canadian models forecast Vance to be weaker and \nshear apart vertically, with the low-level center being steered more \nto the northwest before eventually turning northward.  While the \ncurrent structure makes such a shearing apart unlikely in the short \nterm, it is possible that Vance could shear apart between 24-48 h if \nit weakens more than forecast, and at that point it could turn more \nnorthwestward.  The forecast track leans toward Vance staying \nvertically coupled, and it is in the best overall agreement with the \nGoogle Deepmind ensemble mean, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and the \nFlorida State Superensemble. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/2100Z 11.2N 102.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 11.9N 102.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 12.9N 103.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 13.9N 103.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 14.9N 103.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  26/0600Z 15.7N 103.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 16.1N 104.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  27/1800Z 16.8N 104.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  28/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}