{"msg": "087\nAXNT20 KNHC 231641\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will develop\nbeginning late today as high pressure builds southward over the \nwestern Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas\nalong a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is \nexpected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and \nrough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force \nover much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night \nthrough Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these \ndangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to\navoid the affected areas. \nPlease, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website\nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall Event in the North Caribbean: A mid to upper level\ntrough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical\nmoisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and \nCaicos Islands this weekend and Mon. By mid-week, the trough is \nforecast to weaken and move eastward into the central Atlantic. \nHeavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life- \nthreatening flash flooding. \nPlease refer to your local weather services and the International\nDesk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W \nto 12N30W. The ITCZ runs from 11N36W to near the Venezuela/Guyana \nborder. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N \nbetween 20W and 31W, and from 06N to 10N between 31W and 45W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge over \nthe Gulf waters, supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh NE \nto E winds with slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are noted over the Straits of Florida, and near the \nNE of the Yucatan Peninsula. Low clouds are banked up against the \nSierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. \nFor the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the \nabove mentioned high pressure and low pressure forecast to \ndevelop near the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE \nwinds and rough to very rough seas over the eastern Gulf, \nincluding the Florida Straits, tonight through early next week. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, and Jamaica.\nAn upper-level trough over NW Caribbean is triggering scattered \nto numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and\nNW Caribbean, including the Cayman Islands and regional waters as\nwell as Jamaica, and just south of Hispaniola. Recent scatterometer\ndata indicate moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds over the\neastern Caribbean, and moderate N to NE winds over the NW Caribbean\nwith moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and \nslight to moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of \nAmerica and NW Caribbean will support scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and \nWindward Passage through Sun. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the \ncentral and western Caribbean will support light winds and slight \nto moderate seas west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E \nto SE winds and moderate seas east of 75W. Looking ahead, expect \nfresh N to NE winds across the western Caribbean with building \nseas west of 80W early next week as high pressure builds north of \nthe area. Expect rough seas and large swell across the Yucatan \nChannel Mon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain\nevent over the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.\nNumerous showers and thunderstorms are near a 1012 mb low pressure\nlocated just E of the Bahamas at 25N73W. This convective activity\nnow covers most of the waters from 20N to 30N between 65W and \n76W. A surface trough extends from the low center northeastward to\nbeyond 31N56W. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of \nthe trough axis, mainly N of 25N. A few showers and thunderstorms\nare near SE Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted N of \n25N and W of 72W between the low pressure center and high pressure\nover eastern United States. Fresh to strong southerly winds are \nobserved per satellite derived wind data N of 27N between 42W and \n51W due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a\ntrough situated N of 27N and near 50W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with\nthese winds. Farther south, a surface trough is analyzed and extends\nfrom 19N31W to 10N32W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection\nfollow the trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure located NE of \nthe Azores dominates the remainder of the forecast region supporting\nmoderate to locally fresh NE to E winds with moderate seas. Large\nnortherly swell continues to propagate mainly across the waters W\nof 70W with seas of up to 9 ft. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell will continue\nto propagate across the forecast waters mainly W of 65W and NE of\nthe Bahamas today then gradually subside tonight through Sat. A \ntightening pressure gradient will develop across the northwestern \nzones beginning late today as high pressure builds southward over \nthe western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the central \nBahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup \nis expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and\nrough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force \nover much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night \nthrough Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these \ndangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to\navoid the affected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221274238454333442", "issued": "2026-10-23T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221274238454333442"}