{"msg": "766\nAXPZ20 KNHC 231458\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1450 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Vance is centered near 10.7N 102.1W at 23/1500 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100\nkt. Seas are peaking near 30 ft or 10.0 m. Numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is within 150 nm of the center. Numerous \nmoderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 03N \nto 16N between 95W and 106W. Vance is moving toward the north- \nnorthwest, and this motion is expected to continue through the \nweekend. Steady intensification will continue during the next 24\nhours, and Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane \ntonight. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin \naffecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern \nMexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are\nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting \nminimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of\nTehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale\nforce through early this morning, and again tonight across the \nTehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. Please read the \nlatest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center\nat website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for \nfurther details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N98W. The ITCZ\nextends from 09N110W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 01N to 08N and east of 83W, and\nfrom 00N to 06N between 115W and 140W.  \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh\nwinds are west of the Baja California peninsula, locally strong \nwinds are from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia, extending\nsouthward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas.\nModerate winds, and slight to moderate seas are over the Gulf of\nCalifornia. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas are\nelsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 11.3N 102.5W this evening, \n12.3N 102.9W Sat morning, 13.3N 103.3W Sat evening, 14.4N 103.6W \nSun morning, 15.3N 103.9W Sun evening, and 15.9N 104.2W Mon \nmorning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to \nnear 16.6N 104.4W early Tue. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to gale \nforce through early morning and again tonight across the \nTehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies with a tight \npressure gradient over the region. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds \noffshore Baja California Sur will pulse and expand to across the \nBaja California waters through tonight before diminishing, \nlocally strong from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia today. Rough\nseas in northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will \nspread across those waters tonight through Sat. Moderate seas \nwill prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of \nTehuantepec, except slight in the Gulf of California. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are over and\ndownstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and \nmoderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, \nexcept locally rough seas offshore southern Ecuador to the \nGalapagos Islands.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Seas will build to rough in southerly swell offshore\nEcuador to the Galapagos Islands today through early Sat as\nwinds freshen there. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas\nwill prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Hurricane \nVance.\nModerate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas \nin northerly swells are from 10N to 25N and W of 120W. Elsewhere,\nwinds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 11.3N 102.5W this evening, \n12.3N 102.9W Sat morning, 13.3N 103.3W Sat evening, 14.4N 103.6W \nSun morning, 15.3N 103.9W Sun evening, and 15.9N 104.2W Mon \nmorning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to \nnear 16.6N 104.4W early Tue. Meanwhile, fresh winds and rough seas \nover the W-central waters will decrease through the evening. \nRough northerly swells will push S of 30N in the N-central waters\nSat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist \nelsewhere. A frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters \nmay send rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late in the weekend into\nearly next week. Combined seas may build to rough over the \nS-central waters early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221254025264136194", "issued": "2026-10-23T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221254025264136194"}