{"id": "1221250925283573762", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-23T15:00:00Z", "msg": "403\nWTPZ42 KNHC 231443\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Vance Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026\n900 AM CST Fri Oct 23 2026\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Vance continues to get better \norganized this morning. The hurricane has a well-defined central \ndense overcast with occasional hints of an eye trying to form and \neyewall cloud tops poking up through the overcast. The hurricane \nalso has a large complex of outer bands in the northeastern \nsemicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 70-79 kt \nrange, and they have trended upward slightly since the last \nadvisory. The initial intensity is set at 80 kt.\n\nVance is currently undergoing steady to rapid strengthening and a \nvery favorable atmospheric environment. However, there are two \nissues that seriously complicate the intensity forecast. First, the \nprevious tropical cyclones that have moved through the area near \nVance's forecast track have caused a significant decrease in both \noceanic heat content and sea surface temperatures north of where \nthe center is now. Indeed, sea surface temperatures at a drifting \nbuoy about 25 n mi from the center of Vance have fallen below 28C \njust during the past few hours.  This cold pool is likely to halt \nintensification, and it may take Vance a couple of days to get past \nit. Second, southwesterly and westerly vertical wind shear is \nforecast to increase by 24 h, and in combination with the colder \nwater could cause the cyclone to weaken. The new intensity forecast \nfollows the scenario shown by the HAFS models, which shows \nweakening while the cyclone is over the colder water followed by \nmodest re-intensification. It should be noted that a track to the \nright of the forecast track will keep the center over the colder \nwater for a longer time, while a track to the left would reduce how \nmuch time the center spends over the cold pool. If it is not \nalready apparent, this intensity forecast is low confidence.\n \nThe center has reformed or jogged to the west during the past few \nhours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 325/4 kt. \nVance is currently being steered by a weak mid-level ridge over \neastern Mexico and the eastern Pacific, and later in the forecast \nperiod it will come under the influence of a large mid- to \nupper-level trough over the western United States as well as the \nadjacent portions of northern Mexico and the northeastern Pacific. \nWhile the dynamical models agree on the general synoptic pattern, \nthe track forecast is complicated by the possibilities of how \nstrong and vertically stacked Vance will be. A stronger and more \nvertically stacked Vance, especially as depicted in the GFS, will \nlikely move slowly toward the north-northwest and north during the \nforecast period. On the other hand, the UKMET and Canadian forecast \nVance to be weaker and shear apart, with the low-level center being \nsteered more to the northwest before eventually turning northward. \nThe track forecast follows the scenario that Vance will stay \nvertically coupled, and the new forecast track is similar to the \nprevious track. However, it lies to the left of the Google DeepMind \nEnsemble Mean, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and the Florida State \nSuperensemble.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/1500Z 10.7N 102.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 11.3N 102.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 12.3N 102.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 13.3N 103.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 14.4N 103.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  26/0000Z 15.3N 103.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 15.9N 104.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  27/1200Z 16.6N 104.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  28/1200Z 17.5N 104.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}