{"msg": "648\nAXNT20 KNHC 231055 CCA\nTWDAT \nCorrected to add Special Feature about the Atlantic Gale Warning\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0930 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tight gradient will set up between a\ntrough or low pressure forming east of the Bahamas, and strong\nhigh pressure farther north over the eastern U.S. and western\nAtlantic. This pattern will support gale force winds and rough to\nvery rough seas across the western Atlantic north of 27N and west of\n60W from late Sat through Sun night into Mon morning. This will\ninclude waters between northeast Florida, the northern Bahamas, \nand Bermuda. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous\nmarine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid \nthe affected areas.\nHeavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level \ntrough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, \nwhile deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the\nsouthern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact\nwith the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining \nmoisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the \nnext several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore\nflow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, \nwhere heavy precipitation is expected through Sunday. Expect the \nheaviest precipitation to occur across all other aforementioned \nareas on Sat and Sun. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for \ndangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. \nPlease refer to your local weather services and the International\nDesk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 13N16W \nand extends to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 05N52W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between \n17W and 20W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA tight gradient between 1020 mb high pressure off Louisiana and a\ntrough over the northwest Caribbean is supporting moderate to\nfresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas across the eastern Gulf this\nmorning. Light to gentle NE to E winds and 1-3 ft seas are noted\nover the western Gulf.\nFor the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high\npressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas \nwill bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the \neastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, tonight through early\nnext week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, and Jamaica.\nAn upper level trough over NW Caribbean supports scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central \nCaribbean. A weak pressure gradient over the area is generating \nmoderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, over the \nbasin. \nFor the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms\nover the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will\nprevail through Sat. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the central \nand western Caribbean will support light winds and slight to \nmoderate seas west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to \nSE winds and moderate seas east of 75W. Fresh N to NE winds \nacross the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W are\nexpected by early next week as high pressure builds north of the \narea. Expect rough seas and large swell across the Yucatan Channel\nMon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a develop gale warning over the western Atlantic.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms are active east of the\nnorthern Bahamas, and west of a trough reaching from 31N60W to \nthe central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate breezes persist east of\n50W, although a tongue of large N swell continues to move into \nthe waters between 70W, with 7 to 9 ft wave heights. Waves are 5-7\nft elsewhere west of 560W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms \nare active near another surface trough is noted along 50W north of\n25N, and within 90 nm east of a trough along 32W from 10N to 18N.\nElsewhere, broad ridging centered on 1030 mb high pressure near \nthe Azores is maintaining fresh to strong SE to S winds and 6-8 \nft seas north of 27N between 45W and 50W, and moderate to fresh E \nwinds and 5-7 ft seas elsewhere. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell will continue\nto propagate across the forecast region W of 65W and NE of the \nBahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop \nbeginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the \nwestern Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a\ntrough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to \ninduce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very \nrough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over much of the\nwaters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night through Sun night. \nMariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine \nconditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the \naffected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221206122768891906", "issued": "2026-10-23T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221206122768891906"}