{"msg": "002\nAXPZ20 KNHC 230911\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0750 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nRecently upgraded Hurricane Vance is centered near 10.9N 102.1W \nat 23/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 \nkt with gusts to 90 kt. Seas are peaking near 27 ft or 8.0 m. \nNumerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm in the E \nsemicircle, and 150 nm in the W semicircle. Numerous moderate \nisolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 480 nm in \nthe E semicircle, and 210 nm in the W semicircle. Vance is \nmoving toward the north-northwest, and this motion is expected \nto continue through the weekend. Rapid intensification will \ncontinue during the next 24 hours, and Vance is forecast to \nbecome a major hurricane by tonight. Swells generated by Vance \nare expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern\nand southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next \nweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued \nby the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and recently upgraded Hurricane Vance \nis supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling \ninto the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds \nwill pulse to gale force through early this morning, and again \ntonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further \nintensifies. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by \nthe National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia at 10N75W to\n08N91W to SE of Hurricane Vance at 09N98W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom SW of Vance at 08N110W to 02N140W. Other than the \nconvection associated with Vance above, scattered moderate and \nisolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 80W\nand 86W, and from 00N to 07N between 124W and 136W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nrecently upgraded Hurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the \nGulf of Tehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh\nnortherly winds  are in the northern Gulf of California due to a\npassing cold front over far NW mainland Mexico. Moderate to \nlocally fresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja California from near \nPunta Eugenia southward and to the W of 110W. Winds are moderate\nor weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are slight in\nthe Gulf of California, except to moderate in the northern Gulf.\nSeas are moderate elsewhere away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nand seas associated with Vance.\nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 11.5N 102.5W this afternoon,\n12.4N 103.0W Sat morning, 13.4N 103.4W Sat afternoon, 14.5N \n103.8W Sun morning, 15.6N 104.0W Sun afternoon, and 16.4N 104.4W \nMon morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to\n17.0N 104.6W early Tue. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to gale \nforce through early morning and again tonight across the \nTehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies with a tight \npressure gradient over the region. Fresh winds in the northern \nGulf of California will diminish later today. Moderate to fresh \nNW-N winds offshore Baja California Sur will pulse and expand to \nacross the Baja California waters through tonight before \ndiminishing, locally strong from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia\ntoday. Rough seas in northerly swells offshore Baja California \nNorte will spread across those waters tonight through Sat. \nModerate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec, except slight in the Gulf of California.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle\nto moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the\ndiscussion waters, locally rough offshore southern Ecuador to the\nGalapagos Islands.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Seas will build to rough in southerly swell offshore \nEcuador to the Galapagos Islands today through early Sat as \nwinds freshen there. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nwill prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on recently\nupgraded Hurricane Vance.\nElsewhere, a stationary front that had extended from Baja \nCalifornia just S of Punta Eugenia to the open central waters has\ndissipated. Even so, remnant moderate to locally fresh NE-E \nwinds 7-9 ft seas in northerly swells are from 10N to 25N to the\nW of 119W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate \nseas away from Vance.\nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 11.5N 102.5W this afternoon,\n12.4N 103.0W Sat morning, 13.4N 103.4W Sat afternoon, 14.5N \n103.8W Sun morning, 15.6N 104.0W Sun afternoon, and 16.4N 104.4W \nMon morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to\n17.0N 104.6W early Tue. Meanwhile, remnant fresh winds and rough\nseas over the W-central waters will diminish and subside through\nthe evening. Rough northerly swells will push S of 30N in the \nN-central waters Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nwill persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, a frontal system just WNW \nof the discussion waters may send rough seas to the SE of 30N140W\nlate in the weekend into early next week. Combined seas may \nbuild to rough over the S-central waters early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221185692885581826", "issued": "2026-10-23T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221185692885581826"}