{"msg": "453\nAXNT20 KNHC 230337\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level \ntrough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, \nwhile deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the\nsouthern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact\nwith the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining \nmoisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the \nnext several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore\nflow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, \nwhere heavy precipitation is expected through Sunday. Expect the \nheaviest precipitation to occur across all other aforementioned \nareas on Sat and Sun. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for \ndangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. \nPlease refer to your local weather services and the International\nDesk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 07N12W \nand extends to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 08N27W. It\nresumes from 08N33W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted from 02N to 09N between 16W and 27W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure over the eastern of the United States supports \nmoderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf region. Slight to\nmoderate seas are noted. \nFor the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high\npressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas \nwill bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the \neastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, Fri night through \nearly next week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper level trough over NW Caribbean supports scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central \nCaribbean and Windward Passage. A weak pressure gradient over the \narea is generating moderate or weaker winds, and slight to \nmoderate seas, over the basin. \nFor the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms\nover the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will\nprevail through Sat. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the central \nand western Caribbean will support light winds and slight to \nmoderate seas west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to \nSE winds and moderate seas east of 75W. Fresh N to NE winds \nacross the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W are\nexpected by early next week as high pressure builds north of the \narea. Expect rough seas and large swell across the Yucatan Channel\nMon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA 1011 mb low is centered to the northe of the area, with a \ntrough extending from the low to 24N53W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is in the vicinity of the trough. Fresh to strong \nsoutherly winds, and moderate to rough seas are east of the trough\nbetween 44W and 51W. Large northerly swell generated from Post- \nTropical Josephine north of the area is generating rough seas N of\n25N and W of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and \nmoderate seas prevail as surface ridging dominates the area. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell will continue\nto propagate across the forecast region W of 65W and NE of the \nBahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop \nbeginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the \nwestern Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a\ntrough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to \ninduce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very \nrough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over much of the\nwaters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night through Sun night. \nMariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine \nconditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the \naffected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221120093504667650", "issued": "2026-10-23T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221120093504667650"}