{"msg": "258\nAXPZ20 KNHC 230244\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0140 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 10.5N 101.9W at 23/0300\nUTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt. Seas are peaking near 25 ft or 7.5 m. Numerous\nmoderate to strong convection is within 105 nm of the center, \nexcept 60 nm SW quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted elsewhere within 450 nm E semicircle, 240 nm \nSW quadrant, and 180 nm NW quadrant. Vance is moving toward the \nnorthwest. A gradual turn toward the north- northwest is \nexpected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have \nincreased. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next 24 \nh, and Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane by early \nSat. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting\nportions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this\nweekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office. Please read \nthe latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml\nand the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory \nat www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and TS Vance is supporting minimal gale\nforce northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of \nTehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale \nforce tonight and Fri night across the Tehuantepec region as \nVance further intensifies. Please read the latest High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 07N87W to 10N95W. The\nITCZ extends from SW of Vance at 05N111W to 03.5N117W to 05N140W. \nOther than the convection associated with Vance above, scattered\nmoderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N\nbetween 82W and 85W, and from 00N to 06N between 122W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance and a Gale warning in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, fresh to\nlocally strong SW winds are in the northern Gulf of California\ndue to a locally tight pressure gradient. Moderate to locally\nfresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja California from Punta Eugenia\nsouthward and to the W of 110W. Winds are moderate or weaker\nacross the remainder of the waters. Seas are slight in the Gulf\nof California, except to moderate in the northern Gulf. Seas are\nmoderate elsewhere away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and seas\nassociated with Vance.\nFor the forecast, Vance will strengthen to a hurricane near \n10.9N 102.2W Fri morning, move to 11.7N 102.8W Fri evening, 12.5N\n103.1W Sat morning, 13.6N 103.5W Sat evening, 14.7N 103.8W Sun \nmorning, and 15.7N 104.1W Sun evening. Vance will change little \nin intensity as it moves to 16.7N 104.4W late Mon. Meanwhile, \nwinds will pulse to gale force tonight and Fri night across the \nTehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies with a tight\npressure gradient over the region. Fresh to locally strong winds\nin the northern Gulf of California will diminish later tonight. \nModerate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California Sur will \npulse and expand to across the Baja California waters through Fri\nnight before diminishing. Rough seas in northerly swells \noffshore Baja California Norte will spread across those waters \nFri night through Sat. Moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away \nfrom Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except slight in the Gulf\nof California.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle\nto moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the\ndiscussion waters, locally rough offshore southern Ecuador.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Seas will build to rough in southerly swell offshore \nEcuador to the Galapagos Islands Fri through early Sat as winds\nfreshen there. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will \nprevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on T.S. \nVance.\nElsewhere, a weakening stationary front extends from Baja \nCalifornia just S of Punta Eugenia to 15N128W. Moderate to\nlocally fresh NE-E winds 7-9 ft seas in northerly swells follow \nthe front. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate\nseas away from Vance.\nFor the forecast, Vance will strengthen to a hurricane near \n10.9N 102.2W Fri morning, move to 11.7N 102.8W Fri evening, 12.5N\n103.1W Sat morning, 13.6N 103.5W Sat evening, 14.7N 103.8W Sun \nmorning, and 15.7N 104.1W Sun evening. Vance will change little \nin intensity as it moves to 16.7N 104.4W late Mon. The stationary\nfront will dissipate later tonight, with associated winds and \nseas decreasing and subsiding as they spread southward over the \nwaters north of 10N and west of 120W. Rough northerly swells \nwill push S of 30N in the N-central waters Sat. Moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Looking \nahead, a frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters may \nsend rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late in the weekend into \nearly next week. Combined seas may build to rough over the \nS-central waters early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221109587329286146", "issued": "2026-10-23T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221109587329286146"}