{"msg": "789\nAXPZ20 KNHC 222055\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2050 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 10.0N 101.5W at 22/2100\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Seas are peaking near 23 ft. Numerous moderate \nand scattered strong convection is from 04N to 13N between 94W \nand 105W. Vance is forecast to turn toward the northwest and \nnorth- northwest over the next 72 hours. The environment appears \ngenerally conducive for significant intensification during the \nnext couple of days. The current forecast has Vance reaching \nhurricane intensity tonight, and reaching category 3 strength \nlate Friday night into Saturday before starting a weakening trend\nSat night. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin \naffecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern \nMexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are\nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice for details.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nT.S. Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale \nforce northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec,\naccompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force \ntonight and Fri night across the Tehuantepec region as Vance \nfurther intensifies. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W. It resumes \nwest of T.S. Vance near 07N105W to 04N113W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 04N113W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 00N to 00N between 120W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance and a Gale warning in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, light to \ngentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas \nin the Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, Vance will strengthen to a hurricane near \n10.3N 101.9W Fri morning, move to 10.9N 102.4W Fri afternoon, \n11.6N 102.7W Sat morning, 12.6N 103.1W Sat afternoon, 13.8N \n103.4W Sun morning, and 15.0N 103.7W Sun afternoon. Vance will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to near 16.1N 104.2W Mon \nafternoon. The pressure gradient between high pressure over \nMexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap \nwinds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by \nrough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Fri night \nacross the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\ndiscussion waters.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on T.S. \nVance.\nElsewhere, a weakening cold front extends from Baja California\nNorte to 18N125W. Moderate winds and rough seas, with maximum \nwave heights to 9 ft, follow the front. Gentle to moderate winds\nand moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight, with winds \nand seas decreasing as they spread southward over the waters \nnorth of 15N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and \nmoderate seas will persist elsewhere. T.S. Vance will strengthen\nto a hurricane near 10.3N 101.9W Fri morning, move to 10.9N \n102.4W Fri afternoon, 11.6N 102.7W Sat morning, 12.6N 103.1W Sat \nafternoon, 13.8N 103.4W Sun morning, and 15.0N 103.7W Sun \nafternoon. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to \nnear 16.1N 104.2W Mon afternoon.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221041044913127426", "issued": "2026-10-22T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221041044913127426"}