{"msg": "999\nAXNT20 KNHC 221722\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level \ntrough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, \nwhile deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the\nsouthern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact\nwith the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining \nmoisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the \nnext several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore\nflow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, \nwhere heavy precipitation is expected from tonight through Sunday.\nExpect the heaviest precipitation to occur across all other \naforementioned areas on Saturday and Sunday. Heavy rainfall will \nraise concerns for dangerous and life- threatening flash flooding.\nPlease refer to your local weather services and the International\nDesk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of\nLibera near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N15W and then\nnorthwestward to 09N27W. A surface trough is analyzed from 17N24W\nto 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 07N59W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is seen from 02N to 10N between 10W and 30W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA surface trough parallels the western Gulf coast from near South\nPadre Island, TX into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and\nisolated thunderstorms are seen S of 21N and W of 91W. Otherwise,\nhigh pressure centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley supports\nmoderate to fresh NE winds and 2-5 ft seas across much of the\nGulf, with locally strong NW winds offshore Veracruz.\nFor the forecast, high pressure over the eastern United States \nsupports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf. \nA tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and a low\npressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to\nstrong NE winds and rough to very rough seas over the eastern \nGulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread \nwestward to the central Gulf by late Sat through early next week. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered moderate to strong convection is occurring over the\ncentral Caribbean S of Hispaniola. Isolated moderate convection is\nalso occurring S of 11N and W of 77W, enhanced by the East Pacific\nmonsoon trough in the SW Caribbean. To the NW, a surface trough\nextending from eastern Cuba to central Belize is supporting\nscattered showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong trades\nprevail in the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades\nprevail in the eastern and far NW Caribbean N of the surface\ntrough. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere.\nSlight seas prevail basin-wide. \nFor the forecast, a broad trough over the central and western \nCaribbean will support light winds and slight to moderate seas \nwest of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and \nmoderate seas east of 75W. Looking ahead, expect fresh N to NE \nwinds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W \nearly next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Little \nchange is expected elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA trough reaches from SE of Bermuda to the Windward Passage. \nFarther north, Subtropical Storm Josephine is off New Jersey. \nN swell of 8 to 12 ft generated by Josephine is moving into the \nregion as far south as 25N west of 70W. A recent altimeter pass \nconfirmed wave heights of 12-14 ft occurring N of 29N. Clusters of\nshowers and thunderstorms are active north of 21N and west of \n45W, mainly near the trough and another trough reaching from \n31N55W to 24N50W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 6-8 ft seas are \nongoing E of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas are \nnoted elsewhere across the basin.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, large N swell, generated by \nSubtropical Storm Josephine centered off the NE of the United \nStates, is moving into the region north of 27N and west of 65W \nthis morning. A tightening pressure gradient will develop \nbeginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the \nwestern Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a\ntrough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to \ninduce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very \nrough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters \nnorth of 28N between 60W and 75W on Sun. Mariners should monitor \nthe latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220999027833864194", "issued": "2026-10-22T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220999027833864194"}