{"msg": "075\nAXPZ20 KNHC 221516\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 9.7N 101.0W at 22/1500\nUTC, moving northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with\ngusts to 60 kt. Seas are peaking near 18 ft. Numerous moderate \nand scattered strong convection is from 05N to 13N between 94W \nand 104W. Vance is forecast to move on a northwest or north-\nnorthwest track during the next several days. The environment \nappears generally conducive for steady-to-rapid intensification \nduring the next couple of days. The current forecast has Vance \nreaching hurricane intensity tonight, and reaching category 3 \nstrength late Friday night into Saturday before starting a \nweakening trend Sat night. Swells generated by Vance are expected\nto begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and \nsouthwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office for details.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nT.S. Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale \nforce northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec,\naccompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force \ntonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further \nintensifies. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W. It resumes \nwest of T.S. Vance near 07N104W to 04N113W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 04N113W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 04N to 08N between 82W and 87W, and from 00N to 07N between \n120W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance and a Gale warning in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, light to \ngentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas \nin the Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, Vance will strengthen to a hurricane near \n10.1N 101.5W this evening, move to 10.7N 102.1W Fri morning, \n11.5N 102.7W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.2W Sat morning, 13.4N 103.6W \nSat evening, and 14.4N 103.9W Sun morning. Vance will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to near 16.0N 104.4W early Mon. \nThe pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TS \nVance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap winds funneling\ninto the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds \nwill pulse to gale force tonight across the Tehuantepec region as\nVance further intensifies.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\ndiscussion waters.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on T.S. \nVance.\nElsewhere, a weakening cold front extends from Baja California\nNorte to 16N136W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas with\nmaximum wave heights to 10 ft follow the front. Gentle to \nmoderate winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted \nelsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the front will dissipate today, with winds and\nseas decreasing as they spread southward over the waters north \nof 15N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate \nseas will persist elsewhere. T.S. Vance will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 10.1N 101.5W this evening, move to 10.7N 102.1W \nFri morning, 11.5N 102.7W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.2W Sat morning, \n13.4N 103.6W Sat evening, and 14.4N 103.9W Sun morning. Vance \nwill change little in intensity as it moves to near 16.0N 104.4W \nearly Mon.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220974299489501186", "issued": "2026-10-22T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220974299489501186"}