{"msg": "006\nAXPZ20 KNHC 220925\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0900 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 9.7N 101.5W at 22/0900\nUTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50\nkt. Peak seas of 14 ft are expected within 60 nm in the north \nsemicircle of the system. Rapid intensification is expected \nduring the next couple of days, and the system is forecast to \nbecome a major hurricane by Saturday. Swells generated by Vance \nare expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern\nand southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next \nweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office for details.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nT.S. Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and T.S. Vance is supporting near- \ngale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of \nTehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds are pulsing to \ngale-force through this morning, and will occur again tonight \nacross the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N96W. It resumes \nwest of T.S. Vance near 06N104W to 04N115W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 04N115W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 05N to 11N between 94W and 97W, and from 00N to 13N and W \nof 121W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Storm Vance and the Gale warning in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, light to \ngentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas \nin the Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, T.S. Vance will move to 10.0N 102.1W this \nafternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.5N 102.8W Fri \nmorning, 11.1N 103.4W Fri afternoon, 11.8N 103.9W Sat morning, \n12.7N 104.3W Sat afternoon, and 13.8N 104.7W Sun morning. Vance \nwill change little in intensity as it moves to 15.5N 105.2W by \nearly Mon. The pressure gradient between high pressure over \nMexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap \nwinds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by \nrough seas. Winds are pulsing to gale-force through this morning,\nand will occur again tonight across the Tehuantepec region as \nVance further intensifies. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\ndiscussion waters.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on newly \nnamed T.S. Vance.\nElsewhere, a 1008 mb low pressure area is centered near 35N122W,\nwith associated weakening cold front extending from 30N117W to \n27N118W, then trough from that point to new. Fresh NW winds and \nrough seas with maximum wave heights to 11 ft follow the \nfront/trough. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in a mix\nof swell are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the front/trough will dissipate today as it \ncontinues to moves westward, with winds and seas diminishing as \nthey spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of \n125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist \nelsewhere. T.S. Vance will move to 10.0N 102.1W this afternoon, \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 10.5N 102.8W Fri morning, 11.1N \n103.4W Fri afternoon, 11.8N 103.9W Sat morning, 12.7N 104.3W Sat \nafternoon, and 13.8N 104.7W Sun morning. Vance will change little\nin intensity as it moves to 15.5N 105.2W by early Mon.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220905399359602690", "issued": "2026-10-22T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220905399359602690"}