{"msg": "583\nAXNT20 KNHC 220355\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0335 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. A\nsurface trough is analyzed from 14N23W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends\nfrom 08N30W to 08N53W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms\nare noted from 05N to 15N and east of 35W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA surface trough extends from southern Texas to the SW Gulf and\nthe southern Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm on either side of this \nboundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin \nallowing for generally dry conditions. Fresh to strong NW winds and \nseas of 5-7 ft are evident off Veracruz, south of 21N and west of \n95W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas are found in \nthe eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas are prevalent. \nFor the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the\naforementioned high pressure and a low pressure forecast to \ndevelop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and \nmoderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. \nThese marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf \nSat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to 12 or \n13 ft with these winds over the eastern Gulf on Sun.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NW and SW\nCaribbean. A weak pressure gradient sustains moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will\npromote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure\ngradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and\nthe Atlantic ridge will bring moderate to fresh E to SE winds\nover the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. At the same\ntime, strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard and the\nsame low pressure will produce moderate to fresh northerly winds\nover the western part of the basin, including the Yucatan\nChannel. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the\ncentral Caribbean. These marine conditions will persist through\nthe upcoming weekend.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA surface trough extends from near 31N69W to a 1011 mb low near\n25N70W and then to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Another\nsurface trough is noted south of Bermuda. Plenty of tropical \nmoisture and divergence aloft support scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms north of 22N and between 62W and 72W.\nModerate to locally fresh northerly winds and rough seas are found\nbehind the westernmost trough, especially north of 25N. \nA similar weather pattern is present in the central Atlantic, where \na surface trough extends southeastward from a 1012 mb low near \n31N58W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found north \nof 21N and between 41W and 55W. A moderate pressure gradient between \nthis surface trough and a broad ridge over the NE Atlantic sustains \nfresh southerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the area described. The \nremainder of the Atlantic is dominated by the aforementioned broad \nridge, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. An \nexception is evident off NE South America where wind speeds reach \nfresh force.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and\nNE swell persist west of a trough that extends from near Bermuda \nto the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will \ndiminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this evening while seas \nwill slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the \nBahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop \nbeginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the \nwestern Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along \nthe trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to \nstrong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds \nlikely reaching gale-force over the waters roughly NW of a line \nfrom near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on Sun. Mariners should \nmonitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in \nplace. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220840465272012802", "issued": "2026-10-22T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220840465272012802"}