{"msg": "877\nAXPZ20 KNHC 220319\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 9.6N 100.7W at\n22/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind \nspeed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas of 14 ft are \nexpected within 30 nm in the north semicircle of the system. \nSteady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is \nforecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Swells generated by \nVance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of \nsouthern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into \nnext week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nT.S. Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and T.S. Vance is supporting near- \ngale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of \nTehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds are pulsing to \ngale-force tonight and will happen again on Thu night across the\nTehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N94W. It resumes \nwest of T.S. Vance near 06N105W to 05N110W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 05N110W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 00N to 08N east of 94W, and scattered moderate to strong\nconvection is from 00N to 14N and W of 118W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Storm Vance and the Gale warning in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, light to \ngentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas \nin the Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, T.S. Vance will move to 9.8N 101.2W Thu \nmorning, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N 102.1W Thu evening,\n10.9N 102.9W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.5W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.9W\nSat morning, and 13.5N 104.1W Sat evening. Vance will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to 15.4N 105.0W by late Sun. The \npressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and T.S. \nVance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap winds funneling\ninto the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds \nare pulsing to gale-force tonight and will happen again on Thu \nnight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\ndiscussion waters.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on newly \nnamed TS Vance.\nElsewhere, a 1006 mb low pressure area is centered near 35N122W,\nwith associated weakening cold front extending from 30N118W to \n21N139W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas with maximum \nwave heights to 12 ft follow the front. Gentle to moderate winds \nand moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the front will dissipate through late Thu as \nit continues to moves westward, with winds and seas diminishing \nas they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of\n125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist \nelsewhere. T.S. Vance will move to 9.8N 101.2W Thu morning, \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N 102.1W Thu evening, 10.9N \n102.9W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.5W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.9W Sat \nmorning, and 13.5N 104.1W Sat evening. Vance will change little \nin intensity as it moves to 15.4N 105.0W by late Sun. The \npressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TS Vance \nis supporting near-gale force northerly gap winds funneling into \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds are \npulsing to gale-force tonight and will happen again on Thu night \nacross the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220833262115880962", "issued": "2026-10-22T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220833262115880962"}