{"msg": "159\nAXPZ20 KNHC 212101\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2045 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 9.4N 99.8W at 21/2100 UTC,\nmoving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. \nSeas are peaking near 14 ft. Scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is noted within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate \nand isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 02N to 15N \nbetween 90W and 103W. Vance is moving westward, with a slow \nforward motion and a turn toward the northwest and then north-\nnorthwest forecast. The system is forecast to reach hurricane \nintensity by Thu night. Swells generated by Vance are expected \nto begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and \nsouthwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nTwenty-Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and TS Vance is supporting near- gale \nforce northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec,\naccompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale- force \ntonight and Thu night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as TS Vance \nfurther intensifies. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N95W. It resumes west\nof TS Vance near 08N100W to 04N110W. The ITCZ extends from \n04N110W 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 00N to 08N east of 83W, and from 01N to\n09N between 110W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nnewly named Tropical Storm Vance and the gale warning in the \nGulf of Tehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and TS Vance, light to gentle\nbreezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the\nGulf of California. \nFor the forecast, newly named Tropical Storm Vance is near 9.4N \n99.8W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 1003 mb. Vance will move to 9.5N 100.5W Thu morning, \n9.8N 101.3W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N \n102.1W Fri morning, 11.2N 102.7W Fri afternoon, 11.9N 103.1W Sat \nmorning, and 12.8N 103.5W Sat afternoon. Vance will change little\nin intensity as it moves to near 14.5N 104.3W Sun afternoon. The\npressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TS Vance\nis supporting near- gale force northerly gap winds funneling \ninto the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds \nwill pulse to gale- force tonight and Thu night across the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec as TS Vance further intensifies. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the\ndiscussion waters.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo\nregion. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on newly \nnamed TS Vance.\nElsewhere, a 1009 mb low pressure area is centered near 33N123W,\nwith associated cold front extending from 30N120W to 22N130W. \nFresh to strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas with \nmaximum wave heights to 14 ft follow the front. Gentle to \nmoderate winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted \nelsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the front will dissipate through late Thu as \nit continues to moves westward, with winds and seas diminishing \nas they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of\n125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist \nelsewhere. Vance will move to 9.5N 100.5W Thu morning, \n9.8N 101.3W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N \n102.1W Fri morning, 11.2N 102.7W Fri afternoon, 11.9N 103.1W Sat \nmorning, and 12.8N 103.5W Sat afternoon. Vance will change little\nin intensity as it moves to near 14.5N 104.3W Sun afternoon. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220759057528520706", "issued": "2026-10-21T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220759057528520706"}