{"id": "1220756373619605506", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-21T21:00:00Z", "msg": "832\nWTNT45 KNHC 212047\nTCDAT5\n \nSubtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026\n500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026\n\nThe non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have \nbeen monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical \ncharacteristics to be considered a subtropical storm.  \nScatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had \ndissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday.  \nAdditionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near \nand west of the warm-core center.  Thus, advisories have been \ninitiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial \nintensity based on the scatterometer data.\n\nJosephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave \nridge passes across the northeastern United States.  The storm \nshould accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough \ndigs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking \nthe system away from the US.  By Friday, the low should turn \neastward, to the south of Newfoundland.  Model guidance is in good \nagreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of \nthe global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid \nHCCA.\n\nThe subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or \nso through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the \nnorth wall of the Gulf Stream.  Global models are in good agreement \non a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back \nside of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition.  A slow \nweakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing \nfrom the trough while the system moves over cold water.  The NHC \nintensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global \nmodel solutions.  The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4 \ndays within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.  \n\nSince the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered \nfor the last several days through non-tropical products issued by \nlocal National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast \nto move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect \nuntil the threat diminishes.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/2100Z 37.4N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL\n 12H  22/0600Z 38.1N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL\n 24H  22/1800Z 39.6N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  23/0600Z 41.4N  61.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  23/1800Z 43.3N  56.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 60H  24/0600Z 44.1N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  24/1800Z 44.4N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  25/1800Z 43.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}