{"msg": "769\nAXNT20 KNHC 211740\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1730 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nThe Gambia near 13N17W, and continues west-southwestward to \n08N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N40W and to \nnear 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm \nof the trough between the coast of Africa and 17W. Similar\nactivity is within 60 nm south of the trough between 24W-27W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA trough is in the SW Gulf from near 21N95W to 18N94W. Scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the \ntrough from 19N to 21N, and within 90 nm east of the trough south \nof 19N. Another trough extends from near Corpus Christi to 27N96W \nand to 24N96.5W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 30 \nnm east of the trough from 27N to 28N. Fresh to strong northwest\nwinds are west of the SW Gulf trough as high pressure southward \nover Mexico. Seas with these winds are about 8 to 9 ft. Broad high\npressure is elsewhere over the basin, with the resultant pressure\ngradient generally allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to \neast winds east of about 94W, and gentle to moderate northeast \nwinds elsewhere west of 94W. Seas are mostly in the moderate \nrange.\nFor the forecast, the fresh to strong winds west of the SW Gulf \nwill diminish to fresh speeds late tonight. A tightening pressure\ngradient between the ridge and a low pressure forecast to develop\nnear the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong northeast winds and \nmoderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. \nThese marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf \nSat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to around \n13 ft with these winds over the southeastern Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are persistent \noffshore Colombia to near 13N between 73W and 77W. High pressure \nnorth of the area and a nearby stationary frontal boundary support\nmoderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the waters north\nof 20N. Moderate to fresh trades along with seas of 3 to 5 ft are\nfound from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. Elsewhere, light to \ngentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will \npromote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure \ngradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and \nAtlantic high pressure will induce moderate to fresh east to \nsoutheast winds over the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. \nThis weather pattern will also produce gentle to moderate \nnortherly winds over the western part of the basin, with the \nexception of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the Yucatan \nChannel, and mainly light to gentle winds over the central \nCaribbean. These marine conditions are forecast to last through \nthe upcoming weekend.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front is analyzed from 31N64W to 27N70W and to the\ncentral Bahamas and to central Cuba. Scattered showers are \noccurring near this boundary. Ahead of it, a trough extends from\nnear 26N68W to 23N72W and to the Windward Passage. Numerous\nmoderate convection is seen from 22N to 27N between 66W and 72W.\nOvernight scatterometer data highlighted moderate to fresh \nnorth to northeast winds behind the front. Seas over these waters\nare in the 8 to 13 ft range per latest satellite altimeter data \nand buoy observations. Farther east, weak low pressure of 1012 mb \nis near 28N57W. It is along a NW to SE oriented trough that \nextends from near 3163W to the low and continues southeastward to \nnear 24N54W. The combination of these features with a broad upper-\nlevel trough in the vicinity will continue to result in a large \narea of numerous to isolated strong convection over the waters \nfrom 22N to 30N between 45W and 57W. Moderate to fresh southerly \nwinds along with moderate seas are east of the surface trough.\nMeanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, an area of scattered\nshowers and a few thunderstorms is from 12N to 17N between 47W \nand 54W. Isolated showers are from 13N to 18N between 38W and 47W.\nTo the NE, a trough extends from 30N24W to 22N23W. No deep\nconvection is noted with this feature. Latest scatterometer data \nshows light to gentle northeast to east winds within 180 nm either \nside of the trough from 22N to 24N and moderate to fresh northeast \nto east winds north of 24N between 16W and 34W. Seas over these\nwaters are 5 to 7 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic east \nof about 55W is under the influence of strong high pressure\nridging, with the parent high center of 1031 mb located to the\nnorth of the Azores. The related pressure gradient is maintaining \nmoderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and\nNE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from \nnear Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Winds \nwill diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later today while seas \nwill slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the \nBahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop \nbeginning late on Fri as high pressure builds southward over the \nwestern Atlantic and low pressure develops near the Bahamas along \na remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce \nwidespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough to \nvery rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the \nwaters roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern \nBahamas on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine \nforecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220719446305210370", "issued": "2026-10-21T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220719446305210370"}