{"id": "1220683509122105346", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-21T15:00:00Z", "msg": "479\nWTPZ42 KNHC 211437\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026\n900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located south of \nsouthern Mexico (EP94) has continued to become better organized this \nmorning. Deep convection has increased, and showers and \nthunderstorms have become more concentrated within curved banding \nfeatures. A subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB \nwas T2.0/ 30 kt. Visible satellite shows that the low-level \ncirculation center is now well-defined, and advisories are therefore \nbeing initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E. The initial \nintensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow \nforward motion is expected with a turn towards the northwest and \nthen north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern \nand western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. The \nNHC track forecast leans towards the GDMI and HCCA solutions and is \non the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The GFS and some of \nthe hurricane regional models continue to move the system more \nsouthwestward over the next 12 hours or so and are on the western \nportion of the track suite. \n\nEnvironmental conditions are highly conducive for rapid \nintensification. The cyclone is located over very warm waters in the \neastern Pacific within an environment of low vertical wind shear, \nabundant mid-level moisture, and divergence aloft. Rapid \nintensification guidance is also well above climatological mean, \nparticularly in the 12-60 h period. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS \nRI probabilities for a 55-kt increase in 48 hours are 73 and 83 \npercent, respectively. Thus, rapid intensification is explicitly \nforecast during that time. By 72 hours, vertical wind shear is \nforecast to increase, and mid-level dry air could begin to entrain \ninto the circulation. As a result, a weakening trend is shown later \nin the forecast period. The official NHC intensity forecast is near \nthe upper end of the guidance, although the Google DeepMind does \nshow a higher peak intensity.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/1500Z  9.5N  99.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z  9.4N 100.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z  9.7N 101.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 10.7N 102.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  24/0000Z 11.5N 103.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  24/1200Z 12.5N 103.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  25/1200Z 14.2N 104.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  26/1200Z 15.4N 105.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}