{"msg": "189\nAXNT20 KNHC 211020\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1000 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The\nGambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 08N31W. \nThe ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 09N51W. Scattered showers are\nnoted in the vicinity of the Monsoon Trough and E of 21W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA surface trough in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce\nscattered showers, while drier conditions are prevalent \nelsewhere. Strong high pressure north of the area is forcing \nstrong NW winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf, while moderate to \nfresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the rest \nof the basin.\nFor the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will \nsupport fresh to NE winds across the basin through the week, \nexcept for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf through Wed. The \nhigh, combined with a low pressure that is expected to develop \nnear the Bahamas, will support strong to near-gale NE winds and \nrough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread\nwestward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas \nare expected to peak to 12 ft with these winds. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off Colombia. High \npressure north of the area and a nearby stationary frontal \nboundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in \nthe waters north of 20N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds \nand seas of 3-5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. \nElsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish\nto moderate speeds today as high pressure north of the basin \nweakens. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the \neastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while \ngentle to moderate NE winds will continue W of 79W. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas \nand central Cuba. Scattered showers are occurring near this \nboundary. Latest scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to \nfresh northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are \n8-12 ft. Farther east, a weak low pressure near 29N59W along an \nNW-SE oriented surface trough and a nearby broad upper-level \ntrough combine to support scattered showers and thunderstorms \nnorth of 20N and between 42W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly\nwinds and moderate seas are found east of the surface trough.\nMeanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is\nproducing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N and\nbetween 43W and 52W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and \nmoderate seas are present south of 10N and west of 50W. Finally, \nin the far NE Atlantic, a surface trough along 23W from 20N-30N\nsupports scattered showers north of 24N and east of 25W. Moderate\nto fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N \nand east of 35W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under a\nstrong high pressure system positioned north of the Azores, \nsustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and\nlarge NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends \nfrom 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to central Cuba. Winds\nwill diminish into Wed as the frontal boundary weakens. Lingering\nswell will slowly subside through Fri. A tightening pressure \ngradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds \nsouthward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops \nnear, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This \nsetup is expected to induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds\nover the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N61W to the \nnorthern Bahamas. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly \nbuild to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest \nmarine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220633034496507906", "issued": "2026-10-21T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220633034496507906"}