{"msg": "048\nAXNT20 KNHC 210340\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0315 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The\nGambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 09N26W. \nThe ITCZ extends from 09N26W to 07N50W. No significant convection\nis noted near these boundaries.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA surface trough in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, while drier\nconditions are prevalent elsewhere. Strong high pressure north of\nthe area is forcing strong NW winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf,\nwhile moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are\noccurring in the rest of the basin.\nFor the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support \nmoderate to fresh NE winds across the basin through the week, except \nfor strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through \nWed. The high combined with low pressure that is expected to develop \nnear the Bahamas will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough \nseas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread \nwestward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are \nexpected to peak to 12 ft with these winds.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA few showers are noted in the lee of Cuba, over Hispaniola and\noff Colombia. High pressure north of the area and a nearby frontal\nboundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in \nthe waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade \nwinds and seas of 3-5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W.\nElsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish\nto moderate speeds by Wed as high pressure north of the basin \nweakens. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the\neastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while \ngentle to moderate NE winds will continue W of 79W.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary cold front extends from Bermuda to the central\nBahamas and central Cuba. A few showers are occurring near this\nboundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate \nto fresh northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters \nare 8-11 ft. Farther east, a weak low pressure near 27N58W along \nan NW-SE oriented surface trough and a nearby broad upper-level \ntrough combine to support scattered showers and thunderstorms \nnorth of 20N and between 40W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly \nwinds and moderate seas are found east of the surface trough.\nMeanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is\nproducing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N and\nbetween 35W and 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate\nseas are present south of 10N and west of 50W. Finally, in the \nfar NE Atlantic, a weak surface low near 26N22W supports scattered \nshowers north of 22N and east of 25W, affecting portions of \nWestern Sahara, Morocco and the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh \neasterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N and east \nof 35W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under a strong \nhigh pressure system positioned north of the Azores, sustaining \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and\nlarge NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends \nfrom 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. \nWinds will diminish into Wed as the frontal boundary weakens. \nLingering swell will slowly subside through Fri. A tightening \npressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure\nbuilds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure \ndevelops near, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal \ntrough. This setup is expected to induce widespread near to gale-\nforce NE winds over the waters roughly NW of a line from near \n31N51W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba, including the \nStraits of Florida. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly \nbuild to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest \nmarine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220554421408956418", "issued": "2026-10-21T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220554421408956418"}