{"msg": "428\nAXNT20 KNHC 202219\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2100 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues \nsouthward to 08N18W and then westward to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 07N27W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed\nfrom 08N to 12N and east of 25W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered moderate convection is noted over much of the southwest\nbasin in association with a pair of surface troughs, one of which\nextends north-to south from offshore the upper Texas coast to the\nwestern Bay of Campeche and another that extends westward from \nthe northern Yucatan to near 21N92W. Strong NW winds continue \noffshore Veracruz, where seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft. \nElsewhere, 1028 mb high pressure centered over the Middle \nMississippi Valley is supporting moderate to fresh E to NE winds \nand moderate seas across the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will \nsupport fresh to NE winds are across the basin through the latter \npart of the week, except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf\noffshore Veracruz through Wed. Looking ahead, strengthening high \npressure over the eastern U.S. in combination with low pressure \nthat is expected to develop near the Bahamas will support strong \nto near-gale NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. \nThese conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat \nnight through Sun night. Seas are expected to around 12 ft with \nthese winds.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper level trough extending across the Caribbean and the East\nPacific monsoon trough analyzed across the far SW Caribbean \nsupport scattered moderate to strong convection S of 13N and W of \n75W. Outside of convection, a weaker pressure gradient supports\ngentle to moderate or weaker winds and subsequent slight seas across\nmuch of the Caribbean, except for the south-central basin offshore\nColombia and Venezuela where moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft\nseas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will \ndiminish to moderate speeds by late Wed as high pressure north of \nthe basin weakens some. The pressure gradient in place will then \nallow for mostly gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate \nseas across the basin through Wed night. Looking ahead, expect \nmoderate to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean by Thu, \nand fresh winds across the far northwestern Caribbean starting \nlate Sat as stronger high pressure builds again north of the area.\nThese trades diminish to moderate speeds Sun night.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front is stalling from near Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos\nto eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90\nnm on either side of the front. Moderate to fresh N winds and\nrough seas are noted N of the boundary. \nA broad upper-level low near 25N54W and associated surface trough\nto the west is producing a large area of showers and \nthunderstorms N of 20N between 43W and 60W. Fresh SE winds and\nmoderate seas are to the east of the trough, extending to 35W.\nFarther east, scattered moderate convection is noted along a\nsurface trough that extends from the Canary Islands to 25N25W. \nGentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere across \nthe basin.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and\nlarge NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends \nfrom 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. \nWinds will diminish tonight into Wed as the frontal boundary \nbegins to weaken. Lingering swell will slowly subside through Fri.\nLooking ahead, a tightening pressure gradient will develop \nbeginning late Fri as strengthening high pressure builds southward\nover the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near, or NE \nof the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is \nexpected to induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds over the\nwaters roughly NW of a line from near 31N51W to the central \nBahamas and to central Cuba, including the Straits of Florida. \nSeas with these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to \nvery rough. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, \nand have avoidance plans in place. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220491324042838018", "issued": "2026-10-20T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220491324042838018"}