{"msg": "966\nAXNT20 KNHC 200401\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0355 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Significant N Swell: A 1004 mb low pressure centered\nbetween the Outer Banks and Bermuda continues to produce a large\narea of strong to gale-force winds north of our area. A cold front\nextends from this low to 31N67W and to 26N71W, followed by a\nstationary front to the Florida Straits and central Gulf of\nAmerica. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and rough to very\nrough seas, peaking around 15 ft, are noted behind the frontal\nboundaries. These seas will continue to gradually decay tonight, \nbut remain above 12 ft into Tue. Seas to 8 ft will persist\nthereafter over the waters west of 65W and north of 25N through\nThu night.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The\nGambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 07N31W. The\nITCZ extends from 07N31W to 08N45W and to 08N60W. Scattered\nmoderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N\nand east of 30W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe stationary front depicted from Matanzas, Cuba to the Bay of \nCampeche is dissipating. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical\nmoisture south of the front supports scattered showers and some\nthunderstorms near the frontal boundary, mainly west of 87W, and\nover parts of the Yucatan peninsula. The rest of the basin is\nengulfed in a dry continental airmass that suppresses deep\nconvection and supports stratocumulus clouds as the colder air \nmoves over the warmer waters. \nThe tight pressure gradient between the strong high pressure over\nthe eastern United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics\nforces fresh to near gale-force NW winds and rough seas to 10 ft\nin the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft are\nalso noted in the eastern and northern Gulf waters. Moderate to\nfresh and seas of 4-8 ft are found in the rest of the western\nwaters. In the eastern Bay of Campeche, light to gentle winds and\nmoderate seas are prevalent.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate through\nTue, and high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support \nmoderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across the basin into \nthe latter part of the week. Looking ahead, building high pressure\nover the eastern U.S. will support increased NE winds and \nbuilding seas over the eastern Gulf Sat.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlenty of tropical moisture and strong upper-level winds combine\nto produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the\nSW Caribbean, also affecting the countries in the area. Diurnal\nheating has also supported some storms over the Greater Antilles.\nA weak pressure gradient is found across much of the basin,\nsupporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally\nmoderate seas. However, the gradient is a bit tighter near South \nAmerica, sustaining moderate to locally strong easterly trade and \nseas of 3-6 ft.\nFor the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will\nsupport moderate to fresh NE winds across the far northwest \nCaribbean and Yucatan Channel through late Tue. These winds will \ndiminish by mid week as the high pressure weakens, leaving gentle \nto moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin \nthrough mid week. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds \nacross the south-central Caribbean by Thu, and fresh winds across \nthe far northwest Caribbean by late Sat as high pressure builds \nagain north of the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee the Special Features section above for information on \nsignificant north swell behind a cold front in the western \nAtlantic. \nA broad upper-level low near 25N53W is producing a large area of\nshowers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 31N and between 41W\nand 59W. At the surface, the pressure gradient between a strong\nridge off Newfoundland and a couple of surface troughs in the\ncentral Atlantic supports moderate to locally strong easterly\nwinds and seas of 5-9 ft north of 26N and between 40W and 65W. \nAnother surface trough is analyzed along 44W, south of 20N, and a\nfew showers are evident near this boundary. In the far NE waters,\na weak surface trough and east-west surface trough support some\nshower activity near the western Canary Islands. Elsewhere, broad\nhigh pressure dominates sustaining moderate or weaker winds and\nmoderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and\nrough to very rough seas persist west of a frontal boundary \nreaching from 31N67W to the central Bahamas to northwest Cuba. The\nfront is stalling, and will dissipate into mid week. Winds will \ndiminish through Tue, and lingering swell will subside through \nThu. Looking ahead, a tightening pressure gradient developing late\nFri is expected to induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds \nover the waters N of about 25N well into the weekend. Seas with \nthese winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. \nMariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have \navoidance plans in place. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220275357837950978", "issued": "2026-10-20T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220275357837950978"}