{"msg": "020\nAXPZ20 KNHC 192121\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2000 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Trudy is centered near 19.3N 107.9W at 19/2100\nUTC, drifting northward. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 \nkt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Numerous moderate convection is \nwithin 120 nm of the center. A westward to west-southwestward \nmotion is expected through tonight, followed by a gradual turn to\nthe northwest Tue. Weakening is expected over the next couple of\ndays, and Trudy is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical \ncyclone by early Tuesday. \nSwells generated by Trudy will continue affecting portions of \nthe coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico into tonight.\nThese swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Trudy.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1023 mb high pressure\ncentered over NE Mexico continues to force gale-force northerly\ngap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are\nvery rough. These conditions will continue into Tue night. Winds\nwill diminish to strong Wed, but are likely to increase to gales\nagain Thu night and Fri. \nSouth of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): Showers and \nthunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure located \nseveral hundred miles south-southwest of Guatemala, remain \ndisorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form around\nthe middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-\nnorthwestward at around 5 to 10 kt, well to the south of the \ncoast of southern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical\nformation of this low within the next 48 hours and a high chance\nover the next 7 days. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N109W. The ITCZ \nstretches from 07N116W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 16N E of 104W.\nScattered moderate convection has also developed from 01N to 04N\nbetween 132W and 136W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is leading to \nmainly gentle NW winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, \nTropical Storm Trudy is near 19.3N 107.9W at 2 PM PDT, drifting \nnorthward. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt,\nand the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Trudy will weaken \nto a tropical depression near 19.4N 108.3W Tue morning, then \nbecome post-tropical and move to 19.5N 108.9W Tue afternoon. \nTrudy will be near 19.8N 109.3W Wed morning, just northeast of \nthe Revillagigedo Islands Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu \nmorning. High pressure settled over Mexico will continue to \nfunnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of \nTehuantepec into Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas. \nWinds will diminish to strong Wed, but are likely to increase to \ngale-force again Thu night and Fri. Showers and thunderstorms, \nassociated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred \nmiles south-southwest of Guatemala, remain disorganized. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a \ntropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this\nweek as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at \naround 5 to 10 kt, well to the south of the coast of southern \nMexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation of this \nlow within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 \ndays. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. \nOtherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, rough seas deriving from gap winds in the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec will continue well offshore Guatemala into Wed.\nWinds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region, with\nlocally strong pulses possible late this week. Otherwise, \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nModerate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are\nimpacting waters N of the ITCZ and W of 128W. Fresh to locally\nstrong winds originating from a gale-force gap wind episode in\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters as far south as 06N\nbetween 94W and 100W, along with rough seas. Elsewhere, mainly \ngentle winds and moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds with continue to\nbring periods of fresh to strong N winds and rough seas to waters\nN of 05N between 92W and 103W into mid-week. A cold front will\nmove S of 30N tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds and very\nrough seas to waters N of 26N through Wed, with rough seas\nreaching as far south as 20N Thu. Showers and thunderstorms, \nassociated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred \nmiles south-southwest of Guatemala, remain disorganized. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a \ntropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this\nweek as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at \naround 5 to 10 kt, well to the south of the coast of southern \nMexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation of this \nlow within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 \ndays. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220196726465593346", "issued": "2026-10-19T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220196726465593346"}