{"msg": "693\nAXNT20 KNHC 191720\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Significant N Swell: A 1007 mb low near 33N72W extends a\ncold front SE of the low and then southwestward through the\ncentral Bahamas to northern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is\noccurring along and roughly 50 nm E and SE of the front. Winds\nbehind the front have fallen below gale-force, but strong to\nnear gale-force NW winds persist. Very rough seas of 12-20 ft in N\nto NE swell are occurring across the waters N of 26N and W of \n70W. These very rough seas will gradually expand southward to 25N \nand W of 70W through this afternoon and evening. Very rough seas \nwill then steadily diminish through Tuesday afternoon and evening,\nbut rough seas of 8-12 ft will persist through midweek.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of\nGuiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends to near 10N20W. The ITCZ \nextends from 10N20W to 08N35W to 11N44W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring from 05N to 10N and E of 25W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front extends from northern Cuba across the southern\nGulf and into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection\nis occurring along and within 50 nm of the front. Much of the\nbasin N of the front is seeing fresh to strong E to NE winds and\n6-8 ft seas prevail, with winds near gale force and seas of 8-12\nft occurring in the far SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Moderate to\nfresh E winds and moderate seas are occurring S of the front\ncloser to the Yucatan Channel. \nFor the forecast, a stationary front extends across the Straits \nof Florida to 23N90W into the central Bay of Campeche. Fresh to \nstrong NW to N winds and rough seas are over the western Gulf S of\nabout 25N, except for near gale-force NW to N winds over the SW \nGulf offshore Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue \nover the eastern Gulf through Tue. The near gale-force NW to N \nwinds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz will diminish to mostly \nstrong speeds this afternoon. The front will slow down over the \nStraits of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula today, then shift \nsoutheast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper level inverted trough over the western Caribbean and the\nEast Pacific monsoon trough extending across the far SW Caribbean\nare supporting scattered moderate to strong convection generally S\nof 16N and W of 77W. In the NW Caribbean, showers and\nthunderstorms are occurring ahead of the stationary front draped\nacross the southern Gulf of America, as well as along a surface\ntrough in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh\ntrades and 5-7 ft seas prevail in the central Caribbean, with\ngentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region due \nto a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of \nAmerica will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south- \ncentral Caribbean through Wed night and moderate, or weaker winds \nelsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the \nYucatan Channel tonight into Tue, where it will remain through Wed\nbefore dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to \nrough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and the \nnorthwestern Caribbean through early Wed morning. Otherwise, \nmoderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Caribbean \non Thu, and prevail through Fri night as surface ridging builds N \nof the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee the Special Features section above for information on\nsignificant north swell behind a cold front in the western\nAtlantic. \nAn upper level low near 24N51W is inducing several surface troughs\nin the Atlantic from 08N to 31N between 40W and 55W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is occurring from 14N to 29N between 40W and\n50W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms W of this area out\nto 55W. A large swath of fresh to strong winds in broad \ncounterclockwise flow as well as 6-10 ft seas are occurring N of \n24N between 40W and 60W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to\nmoderate or weaker trades and moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from a 1007 mb\nlow pressure located N of the forecast area near 33N71W \nsouthwestward SW to along the coast of Cuba near 23N81W, where it \nstalls to the eastern Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of America. NW \nto N winds to near gale-force are NW of the front N of 30N between\n71W and 73W along with very rough seas while fresh to strong N to\nNE winds are elsewhere behind the front along with rough to very \nrough seas. Winds behind the front will diminish to fresh to \nstrong speeds this afternoon as the gradient slackens. The front \nwill reach from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba by tonight, where\nit will weaken before it dissipates into Wed. Seas N and NE of \nthe Bahamas will slowly subside through the end of the week. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220149318707544066", "issued": "2026-10-19T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220149318707544066"}