{"id": "1220120957349232642", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-19T15:00:00Z", "msg": "940\nWTPZ41 KNHC 191456\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n800 AM MST Mon Oct 19 2026\n \nConvection has reignited near Trudy this morning, with very cold\ncloud tops below -80C evident north and east of the estimated center\non infrared satellite imagery. However, an earlier GPM microwave\npass indicated that westerly wind shear is affecting the tropical\nstorm, with shear estimated at around 15 kt based on GFS and ECMWF\nSHIPS guidance. Recent objective Dvorak intensity estimates from\nUW-CIMSS range from 42-55 kt. Given the renewed convective activity\nand the relatively consistent intensity estimates, the initial\nintensity is maintained at 50 kt for this advisory.\n \nTrudy is moving westward around 5 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level\nridge centered to its north. A westward to west-southwestward\nmotion, accompanied by a slower forward speed, is expected  through\ntonight. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast on Tuesday\nas a strong deep-layer trough advances southeastward over the\neastern Pacific toward the West Coast of the United States. The\nlatest NHC forecast track has been nudged slightly to the left of\nthe previous forecast, toward the HCCA and Google DeepMind\nsolutions.\n \nDespite the recent uptick in convection, cooler sea surface\ntemperatures, increasingly dry mid-level air and an unfavorable\nupper-level wind environment are expected to support weakening over\nthe next couple of days. ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests\nthat Trudy may struggle to maintain organized convection on Tuesday,\nand the latest forecast calls for the system to become post-tropical\nwithin 24 h. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous\nforecast, lying near the upper end of the intensity guidance through\n12 h and near the middle of the guidance thereafter. Trudy is\nforecast to dissipate by 72 h.\n \nLarge swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern\nMexico and west-central Mexico today, causing life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions at the beaches.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/1500Z 19.5N 108.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 19.5N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 19.5N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  21/0000Z 19.9N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  21/1200Z 20.3N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  22/0000Z 20.9N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}