{"msg": "178\nAXNT20 KNHC 191057\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1040 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A stationary front extends across \nthe southern Gulf, from western Cuba to near 22N90W to the \ncentral Bay of Campeche. A 1025 mb high pressure is over NE \nMexico while 1034 mb high pressure is across the NE U.S. \nextending a ridge southward across the basin. The pressure \ngradient south of these highs is forcing gale-force NW to N winds \nand very rough seas of 12-15 ft across the SW waters of the Gulf,\nS of 20N between the front and the Mexican coastline, while fresh\nto locally strong E-NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail \nacross most of the remainder of the basin N of the front and E of\n94W. The front will remain generally stationary and weaken into \nTue. Gale winds and very rough seas to 15 ft will prevail in the \nSW basin through sunrise, then slowly diminish through Tue night. \nAtlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned front transitions to a\ncold front over western Cuba to the northern Bahamas and connects\nto a 1009 mb low near 32N71W. West of the cold front, N-NE winds\nof 20 to 30 kt prevail, with gale-force and frequent gusts to 40 \nkt N of 29N and W of 71W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Very\nrough seas of 12 to 20 ft prevail across these waters. The low is\nexpected to continue to lift northward today, which will slow the\nforward progress of the front. Winds west of the front are \nexpected to gradually diminish today, with gales ending later\nthis morning.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of\nGuiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends about 60 nm to the southwest.  \nThe ITCZ extends from 09N21W to 07N38W to 11N44W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is occurring from 07N to 20N between 37W and \n60W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nSee the Special Features section above for information on the Gale\nWarning in effect for portions of the southwest basin. Outside \nof the gales, fresh to strong E-NE winds prevail E of 94W while \nmoderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are W of 94W and N of 22N. \nSeas of 5 to 10 ft prevail across most of the basin, except in\nthe western Bay of Campeche where gales are still ongoing. \nOtherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the \nfront in the Yucatan Channel and eastern Bay of Campeche.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue over the\neastern Gulf through Tue. The front will slow down over the \nStraits of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula today, then drift to \nthe southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force \nwinds will persist over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through \nlater this morning.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn invereted mid-level trough across the NW Caribbean continues \nto support numerous moderate isolated strong convection offshore\nNicaragua and eastern Honduras while moderate convection is in the\nYucatan Channel in association with a frontal boundary across the\nsouthern Gulf of America. A weak pressure gradient across the \nregion is yielding only moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 \nft seas across the central Caribbean S of 16N between 64W and 78W.\nGentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less \nprevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region due \nto a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of \nAmerica will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south- \ncentral Caribbean through Wed night and moderate or weaker winds \nelsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the \nYucatan Channel tonight into Tue where it will remain through Wed \nbefore dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to \nrough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and the NW \nCaribbean through early Wed morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh \nSE winds will develop in the eastern Caribbean on Thu, and prevail\nthrough Fri night as surface ridging builds N of the area.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee the Special Features section above for information on gales\nongoing southwest of Bermuda behind a cold front moving through \nwestern Atlantic waters. \nA cold front extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located N of \nthe forecast area near 32N71W SW to NW Cuba near 23N83W where it \nstalls to the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of America. Gust to \ngale-force winds are N of 29N with fresh to near gale-force N to \nNE winds elsewhere behind the front along with rough to very rough\nseas. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front to 67W,\naffecting a portion of the Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank.\nSurface ridging from the Azores High prevails elsewhere across the\nsubtropical waters, except over the central region where a broad\narea of low pressure is generating scattered showers and tstms\nfrom 24N to 30N between 35W and 57W. The pressure gradient between\nthe ridge and the broad low pressure is supporting fresh to strong\nNE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the same region.\nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between \nthe low and high pressure in the wake of the front will maintain \ngust to gale-force winds N of 29N between 71W and 81W through \nlater this morning. The front will extend from 31N70W to west- \ncentral Cuba by tonight where it will weaken before dissipating \ninto midweek. Marine conditions associated with the front will \naffect mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue, although seas will \nlinger through Thu.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220074058484449282", "issued": "2026-10-19T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220074058484449282"}