{"msg": "363\nAXPZ20 KNHC 190903\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0855 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Trudy is centered near 19.7N 108.0W at 19/0900\nUTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60\nkt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is observed from 18N to 22N and between 106W and 109W. A \nW motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a \ngradual turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Rapid weakening is \nexpected to continue today, and Trudy is forecast to degenerate to a \npost-tropical cyclone by tonight. Swells generated by Trudy will \ncontinue affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-\ncentral Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products \nfrom your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Trudy.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1025 mb high pressure system\nover NE Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force \nnortherly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending \ndownstream to 08N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured\nwinds up to 41 kt. Seas in these waters are rough to very rough,\nwith a recent altimeter satellite pass estimating seas up to 17 \nft. These conditions will continue into Tue night. Winds will \ndiminish below gale-force by Wed, but remain at strong to near \ngale-force, along with rough seas, through the remainder of the \nweek. Winds may reach gale-force strength again Thu night into\nFri. \nSouth of Southern Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms\nhave persisted with an area of disturbed weather located several\nhundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental conditions \nappear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is \nexpected to form around the middle of this week as the system \nmoves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt, well to \nthe south of the coast of southern Mexico. The chance of\nformation in the next 48 hours is medium and in the next 7 days\nis high.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N109W. The ITCZ \nstretches from 07N123W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is present south of 16N and east of \n105W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nElsewhere, high pressure north of the area extends weakly into \nthe offshore waters of Baja California and the Gulf of\nCalifornia, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to\nmoderate seas. However, seas to 8 ft associated with Trudy extend\ninto the southern part of the Gulf of California and south of\nCabo San Lazaro. In the remainder of the basin, gentle to\nmoderate NW winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Trudy will move to 19.6N 108.4W\nthis afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 19.6N 109.0W \nTue morning, weaken to a remnant low near 19.8N 109.7W Tue \nafternoon, 20.2N 110.1W Wed morning, 20.7N 110.6W Wed afternoon, \nand dissipate Thu morning. A strong high pressure system over NE \nMexico continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap \nwinds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending downstream to \n08N. These conditions will continue into Tue night, along with \nrough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish below gale-force by\nWed, but remain at strong to near gale-force, along with rough \nseas, through the remainder of the week. Winds may increase to \ngale-force again Thu night into Fri. Looking ahead, disorganized \nshowers and thunderstorms have persisted with an area of \ndisturbed weather located several hundred miles south of \nGuatemala. Environmental conditions appear conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form around\nthe middle of this week as the system moves westward to west- \nnorthwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of\nsouthern Mexico.. There is a high chance of tropical formation \nof this low over the next 7 days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting\nmoderate to fresh northerly winds and rough seas to 12 ft in the\nfar offshore waters of Guatemala. Seas to 8 ft have expanded into\nthe far offshore waters of El Salvador and Nicaragua. Otherwise, \ngentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh NE winds well downwind of the Gulf of \nTehuantepec gales will diminish today, while rough seas will\npersist through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and \nmoderate seas will generally prevail through the week. Looking \nahead, winds may pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of \nPapagayo starting midweek into late this week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 35N153W extends \nsoutheastward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters, \nsustaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft west of\n125W and north of the ITCZ. Gap winds originating from the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec have extended southward, bringing strong winds and\nrough seas to waters north of 06N and between 94W and 100W. \nLong-period southerly swell is producing rough seas along and \nsouth of the equator. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate\nseas prevail. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds will continue to\nbring periods of strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N\nbetween 92W and 103W early this week. A cold front will move S of\n30N tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds behind it N of 25N \nthrough Wed. A couple rounds of NW swell, both ahead of and behind\nthis front, will bring rough to very rough seas to waters N of \n20N from Mon night through Thu. Looking ahead, disorganized \nshowers and thunderstorms have persisted with an area of disturbed\nweather located several hundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental\nconditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression\nis expected to form around the middle of this week as the system\nmoves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to \nthe south of the coast of southern Mexico. There is a high chance\nof tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220051691933630466", "issued": "2026-10-19T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220051691933630466"}