{"id": "1220045831119470594", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-19T09:00:00Z", "msg": "558\nWTPZ41 KNHC 190833\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n200 AM MST Mon Oct 19 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that Trudy began rapidly weakening about \n12 hours ago, and during these past 12 hours, most of the deep \nconvection has dissipated.  However, there are still small areas of \ndeep convection in the eastern semicircle of the tropical storm.  A \n19/0359 UTC ASCAT-C pass had a peak wind retrieval of 45 kt, and the \nlatest DPRINT, DMINT and AiDT estimates have fallen to the 46-55 kt \nrange.  The initial intensity was lowered to 55 kt at 06Z, with a \n09Z advisory intensity of 50 kt.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is westward, or 280/5 kt.  A slow motion \nbetween west-southwest and west is expected over the next 12-24 h as \nTrudy is steered by low- to mid-level ridging to its north.  On \nTuesday, a deep-layer trough and associated cold front will approach \nthe waters west of Baja California, causing Trudy to turn \nnorthwestward.  The latest NHC track forecast has once again been \nadjusted to the south of the previous official forecast, and lies in \nbetween the previous forecast and the latest Google DeepMind \nEnsemble Mean.\n \nThe dry environment has taken its toll on Trudy, and the mid-level \nair is forecast to become even drier with time over the next day or \nso, along with a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly \nvertical wind shear.  Trudy is expected to continue to rapidly \nweaken and become post-tropical within the next 24 h, although it \ncould become post-tropical sooner than forecast.  The NHC intensity \nforecast was lowered compared to the previous forecast due to the \nweaker initial intensity and latest model guidance.  This forecast \nlies near the middle of the guidance envelope.  Trudy's remnant low \nis forecast to dissipate by Wednesday night.\n \nLarge swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern \nMexico and west-central Mexico through today, causing \nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions at the beaches.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/0900Z 19.7N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 19.6N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 19.6N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  20/1800Z 19.8N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  21/0600Z 20.2N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  21/1800Z 20.7N 110.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}