{"msg": "095\nAXNT20 KNHC 190454\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has stalled tonight\nacross the southern Gulf, from the Straits of Florida to near\n22N90W to the central Bay of Campeche and into the coast of \nMexico near 93W. Satellite imagery suggests that the portion of \nthe front W of 90W has been drifting westward in recent hours. \n1026 mb high pressure has moved into far NE Mexico, while 1035 mb\nhigh pressure is across the NE U.S. extending a ridge southward \nacross the basin. The pressure gradient south of these highs is \nforcing gale-force NW to N winds and very rough seas of 14-20 ft \nacross the SW waters of the Gulf, S of 21N between the front and \nthe Mexican coastline, while fresh to strong E-NE to NE winds and \nseas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of the remainder of the \nbasin N of the front. The front will remain generally stationary \nand weaken into Tue. Gale winds and very rough seas to 15 ft will \nprevail in the SW basin through sunrise, then slowly diminish \nthrough Tue night. \nAtlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front is eastward \nacross the Atlantic waters N of 27N, and extends through 31N71.5W\nto 27N73W then becomes nearly stationary through the NW Bahamas \nand into the Straits of Florida. W of the cold front, N-NE to NE \nwinds of 20 to 30 kt prevail, with winds near gale-force and \nfrequent gusts to 40 kt N of 29N and W of 73W, where a Gale \nWarning is in effect. Very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft prevail \nacross these waters. The front is associated with a deep low \npressure system across the western Atlantic currently near 32N71W.\nThe low is expected to lift northward overnight, which will slow \nthe forward progress of the front. Winds west of the front are \nexpected to gradually diminish later tonight, with gales ending by\nmorning. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of\nGuiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends about 60 nm to the southwest.  \nThe ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 06N36W to 09.5N45W to the coast of\nGuyana near 06.5N58W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate\nisolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 16.5N between\n35W and 52W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nSee the Special Features section above for information on the Gale\nWarning in effect for portions of the southwest basin. Outside \nof the gales, recent satellite scatterometer data shows strong \nE-NE winds 20-28 kt E of 92W, and fresh to strong NE to N winds W\nof 92W and N of 21N. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of \nthe basin N of the front, highest SW portions. Scattered showers\nand thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the front. \nFor the forecast, the front will meander about over the Straits \nof Florida and to the NW Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche \ntonight through Mon, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf \nthrough Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds will persist over the\nSW Gulf offshore Veracruz through early Mon morning, while winds\nand seas diminish modestly across the remainder of the basin. \nHigh pressure behind the front will continue to support fresh NE \nto E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA weakening upper-level trough across the NW Caribbean continues\nto support scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong\nconvection across the Gulf of Honduras and the waters within 150\nnm of the NE coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua, while moderate \nconvection is further south across the SW basin in association \nwith the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. \nStable atmospheric conditions and fair skies prevail across most\nof the basin elsewhere E of 72W. A weak pressure gradient across\nthe region is yielding only moderate to fresh trades and seas of \n4-6 ft seas across the central Caribbean S of 16N between 64W and\n78W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less \nprevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the \nregion due to a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the \nsouthern Gulf of America, and will maintain moderate to fresh \ntrades in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night and \nmoderate or weaker winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely \nreach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue \nwhere it will remain through Wed before dissipating. Moderate to \nfresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas will impact the waters\nof Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean through early Wed \nmorning. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern \nCaribbean on Thu, and prevail through Fri night as surface ridging\nbuilds N of the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee the Special Features section above for information on gales\nongoing southwest of Bermuda behind the cold front moving through\nwestern Atlantic waters. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows\nNE to N winds of 30 to 50 kt across a broad area of the western\nAtlantic to the W of a 1010 mb surface low near 31N71W and an\nassociated frontal zone. Large seas of 12 to 20 ft in N to NE\nswell prevail across the local waters N of 28N and W of 71W.\nRecent satellite altimeter data showed seas 13-14 ft in the\nGulfstream offshore of Miami and Ft Lauderdale. Seas are 8 to 12 \nft elsewhere NW of the front outside of the Bahamas. Scattered to \nlocally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring \nalong and within 180 nm S of the front between 71W and 80W.\nTo the east of this cold front, a deep layered upper low continues\nacross the central Atlantic near 27N51W, and is promoting unstable\natmospheric conditions across that area. A pair of surface troughs\nnear this feature, along 60W and 53W are accompanied by scattered\nmoderate convection from 22N to 29N between 48W and 60W. Another \nmore significant surface trough from 31N49W to 23N42W is \ninteracting favorably with the upper low to produce scattered to \nnumerous moderate to strong convection along and within 240 nm E\nof this surface trough. Fresh to locally strong E to E-SE winds\nand seas of 7 to 11 ft in mixed N swell and E wind waves are \nfound east of the surface trough to 40W. Moderate winds and seas\nof 4 to 6 ft prevail near the pair of troughs to the W. To the\nsouth of these features, a weak pressure gradient is yielding\ngentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft between\n35W and the Lesser Antilles. A series of 3 low level easterly\nperturbations in the trade wind flow are producing scattered to \nlocally numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 09N to \n16.5N between 35W and 52W. To the E of 35W moderate to fresh NE to\nE winds generally prevail between the Canary Islands, Africa and \n35W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW to N swell. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend from \n31N71W to the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by early \nMon morning, and from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba by Mon \nnight, where it will weaken before dissipating into midweek. The\nlow pressure system associated with the front near 32N71W will\nlift northward tonight, allowing winds to gradually diminish\nbehind the front tonight through Mon. Large N to NE swell\ngenerated by this low pressure will affect the Atlantic waters W\nof 68W through Tue night, then subside modestly, then increase\nagain Wed through Fri across the waters W of 65W. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1220002774206939138", "issued": "2026-10-19T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1220002774206939138"}