{"msg": "481\nAXPZ20 KNHC 190255\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0235 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 19.7N 107.6W at 19/0300 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85\nkt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 104W \nand 108W. A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected \ntonight into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy \nwill move further away from the coast of mainland Mexico during \nthe overnight hours, then move south of Baja California Sur on \nMonday and Tuesday. Rapid weakening is expected to continue \ntonight into Monday, and Trudy could degenerate to a post-\ntropical low by Tuesday night. Swells generated by Trudy are \naffecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central \nMexico during the next two to three days. These swells will cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Trudy.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1026 mb high pressure system\nover NE Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force\nnortherly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending \ndownstream to 08N. These conditions will continue into Tue \nnight, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish \nbelow gale-force by Wed, but remain at strong to near gale-force,\nalong with rough seas, through the remainder of the week.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N101W. The ITCZ\nstretches from 06N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is present from 01N to 16N and east of\n102W and south of 10N and west of 123W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nElsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient across the Gulf of\nCalifornia supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds and\nmoderate seas, especially in the central portion of the basin.\nRough seas associated with Trudy are found in the southern part\nof the Gulf of California. In the remainder of the basin,\nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 19.8N 107.9W Mon morning, move to 19.8N 108.5W Mon \nevening, 19.9N 109.3W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near \n20.4N 109.8W Tue evening, 21.1N 110.1W Wed morning, and dissipate\nWed evening. A strong high pressure system over NE Mexico \ncontinues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap winds \nacross the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending downstream to 08N. \nThese conditions will continue into Tue night, along with rough \nto very rough seas. Winds will diminish below gale-force by Wed, \nbut remain at strong to near gale-force, along with rough seas, \nthrough the remainder of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low \npressure is developing well offshore to the south of the coasts \nof Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression is expected to form around the middle of this week as \nthe system moves westward to west-northwestward, remaining well \nsouth of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. There\nis a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next\n7 days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nStrong winds and very rough seas in association with significant\ngap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters well\noffshore Guatemala. Meanwhile, high pressure north of the\nCaribbean supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and \nmoderate seas are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, \nmoderate seas and mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds well downwind\nof Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will continue to impact waters \noffshore Guatemala tonight, with very rough seas gradually \ndecaying to rough into Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds \nand moderate seas will generally prevail through the week. \nLooking ahead, winds may pulse to fresh to locally strong in the \nGulf of Papagayo starting midweek into late this week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA 1029 mb high pressure system centered near 35N155W extends\nsoutheastward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters,\nsustaining moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 6-8\nft west of 125W and north of ITCZ. Gap winds originating from the \nGulf of Tehuantepec have extended southward, bringing strong winds \nand rough seas to waters N of 05N between 94W and 101W. Long-period \nsoutherly swell is leading to occasionally rough seas along and \nsouth of the equator. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate \nseas prevail. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds will continue to\nbring periods of strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N\nbetween 92W and 103W early this week. A cold front will move S of\n30N Mon night, bringing fresh to strong winds behind it N of 25N \nthrough Wed. A couple rounds of NW swell, both ahead of and behind \nthis front, will bring rough to very rough seas to waters N of 20N \nfrom Mon night through Thu. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure \nis developing well offshore to the south of the coasts of Guatemala \nand El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for \ngradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is \nexpected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves \nwestward to west-northwestward, remaining well south of the coasts \nof Central America and southern Mexico. There is a high chance of \ntropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219979208875278338", "issued": "2026-10-19T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219979208875278338"}