{"id": "1219977124573085698", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-19T03:00:00Z", "msg": "351\nWTPZ41 KNHC 190244\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n800 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026\n \nExamining the last-light visible satellite imagery of Trudy, it is \nbecoming clear that the hurricane is starting to rapidly weaken. The \ncoldest cloud tops within the cyclone on infrared imagery are now \naround -55 degrees C, and the convection continues to decline at a \nsteady rate. This degradation in Trudy's structure is likely due to \na combination of the southwesterly shear and some dry air intrusion \ninto the core of the cyclone. Using a combination of the objective \nand subjective intensity estimates, the intensity has been lowered \nto 70 kt for this advisory.\n \nA WSF-M microwave pass at 0040 UTC was very useful in locating the \ncenter of Trudy, which was further south and west of the Dvorak \nposition, though the initial motion is still estimated towards the \nnorthwest or 315/6 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest or west \nalong with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur as Trudy \ncontinues to weaken. As the cyclone weakens, low- to mid-level flow \nwill become the main steering for Trudy. Trudy will continue to move \naway from west-central Mexico, and then move south of Baja \nCalifornia Sur over the next day or so. The current NHC track \nforecast is farther south of the previous one, partially due to the \nadjustment in the initial position, but remains in good agreement \nwith the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.\n \nThe hurricane already appears to be rapidly weakening due to the \ninfluence of southwesterly shear along with a drier and more stable \nairmass. The current NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the \nguidance envelope showing Trudy continuing to rapidly weaken over \nthe next day or so, followed by more gradual weakening. The current \nforecast has Trudy becoming post-tropical in 48 h and then \ndissipating in 72 h. However, it is possible that both of these \nevents could occur sooner than currently predicted.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall from Trudy is subsiding along the southwest \nMexican coast in Jalisco, and the associated flood risk is expected \nto diminish as well\n \n2. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern\nMexico and west-central Mexico during the next two to three days,\ncausing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/0300Z 19.7N 107.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 19.8N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 19.8N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 19.9N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  21/0000Z 20.4N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  21/1200Z 21.1N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}