{"msg": "994\nAXPZ20 KNHC 182105\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2000 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 19.5N 107.0W at 18/2100 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105\nkt. Peak seas are near 32 ft (9.5 M). Numerous moderate to \nisolated strong convection is observed within about 120 nm of the\ncenter. A general northwestward motion is expected today, \nfollowed by a turn toward the west- northwest tonight. On the \nforecast track, the center of Trudy will move away from the coast\nof mainland Mexico this evening, then move south of Baja \nCalifornia Sur Mon and Tue. Trudy is a Category Two Hurricane on \nthe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Speed Scale, but rapid \nweakening is expected to begin tonight, and Trudy could \ndegenerate into a post-tropical low as early as late Tue. Swells \ngenerated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells will cause \nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Trudy.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure continuing to\nsettle southward into Mexico will force gale force gap winds into\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec into Tue night, with resulting very \nrough seas. Winds to near storm-force are likely at times into \nMon, with seas peaking near 16 ft. Strong to near gale-force \nwinds and rough seas will then persist through the remainder of \nthe week.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N100W and from\n10N110W to 07N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N127W to 03N140W. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from \n02N to 14N and east of 98W and from 03N to 10N and between 110W \nand 120W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nElsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure North\nAmerica and the lower pressure closer to Trudy is leading to\nmoderate NW winds in the Gulf of California. Winds for the\nremaining waters are light to gentle. Seas away from the Trudy\nand the Gulf of Tehuantepec are moderate, except slight in the \nnorthern Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy is near 19.5N 107.0W at 2 PM \nPDT, and is moving northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is \n974 mb. Trudy will move to 19.9N 107.4W Mon morning, 20.1N 108.0W\nMon afternoon, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 108.7W\nTue morning. Tropical Storm Trudy will be at 20.7N 109.3W Tue \nafternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.4N 109.7W Wed morning,\nand reach just south of Baja California Sur Wed afternoon. Trudy\nwill dissipate Thu afternoon. High pressure continuing to settle\nsouthward into Mexico will force gale force gap winds into the \nGulf of Tehuantepec into Tue night, with resulting very rough \nseas. Winds to near storm-force are likely at times into Mon, \nwith seas peaking near 16 ft. Strong to near gale-force winds and\nrough seas will then persist through the remainder of the week.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form well \noffshore of southern Mexico during the next day or two. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development\nthereafter, and a tropical depression is expected to form around\nthe middle of this week while it moves westward to west- \nnorthwestward, well south of Mexico. There is a high chance of \ntropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nStrong winds and very rough seas in association with significant\ngap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters well\noffshore Guatemala. Otherwise, moderate seas and mainly gentle to\nmoderate winds prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds well downwind\nof Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will continue to impact waters \noffshore Guatemala tonight, with very rough seas gradually \ndecaying to rough into Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds \nand moderate seas will generally prevail through the week.. \nLooking ahead, winds may pulse to fresh to locally strong in the \nGulf of Papagayo starting midweek into late this week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure in the north Pacific\nand lower pressure of the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough is leading to\nmoderate trades for waters W of 125W, with moderate seas. Gap\nwinds originating from the Gulf of Tehuantepec have extending\nsouthward, bringing strong winds and rough seas to waters N of\n07N between 92W and 101W. Long-period southerly swell is leading\nto occasionally rough seas along and south of the equator.\nElsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds will continue to\nbring periods of strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N\nbetween 92W and 103W early this week. A cold front will move S of\n30N Mon night, bringing fresh to strong winds behind it N of 25N\nthrough Wed. A couple rounds of NW swell both ahead of and behind\nthis front will bring rough to very rough seas to waters N of 20N\nfrom Mon night through Thu. Looking ahead, an area of low \npressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico \nduring the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical \ndepression is expected to form around the middle of this week \nwhile it moves westward to west- northwestward, well south of \nMexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low \nover the next 7 days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219910507271487490", "issued": "2026-10-18T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219910507271487490"}