{"id": "1219905945429835778", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-18T21:00:00Z", "msg": "325\nWTPZ41 KNHC 182042\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n200 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026\n\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Trudy \nthis afternoon found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 95 kt in \nthe northeast eyewall, with a dropsonde in that area suggesting \nsurface winds of about 85 kt. The minimum central pressure was near \n974 mb. Thus, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.  During \nthe last hour or so, the hurricane's cloud pattern has started to \nlose organization, and this is likely a sign of the forecast \nincreasing shear and the upcoming weakening trend.\n \nThe initial motion northwestward at a slower forward speed or 325/5 \nkt. A turn toward the west-northwest at an even slower forward \nspeed is forecast as Trudy shears apart vertically and becomes \nsteered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The new forecast \ntrack is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of \nthe guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the hurricane will \nmove away from southwest and west-central Mexico this afternoon and \nthen move slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday.\n\nTrudy is starting to encounter increasing southwesterly shear and a \ndrier and more stable airmass. The dynamical intensity guidance \nforecasts this combination to cause rapid weakening starting near \nthe 12 h point at the latest, and the intensity forecast follows \nthe trend of this guidance. The new forecast follows the previous \nforecast in showing Trudy degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone \nby 60 hours and dissipating in 3 or 4 days. Both of these could \noccur sooner than currently predicted.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Although tropical storm conditions are moving away from the \nMexican coast, gusts to tropical storm-force are possible this \nafternoon and evening over portions of the coast of west-central \nMexico and the Islas Marias.\n \n2. Coastal flooding due to storm surge should subside this \nafternoon and tonight.\n \n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue to impact the \nsouthwest Mexican coast in Jalisco through tonight. This rainfall \nmay produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas \nalong steep terrain.\n \n4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern\nMexico and west-central Mexico during the next two to three days, \ncausing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  18/2100Z 19.5N 107.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 19.9N 107.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 20.1N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 20.7N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  21/0600Z 21.4N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/1800Z 21.9N 110.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}