{"id": "1219833576260075522", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-18T15:00:00Z", "msg": "217\nWTPZ41 KNHC 181434\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n800 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026\n\nTrudy has changed little in organization during the past few hours. \nThe hurricane has a well-defined central dense overcast with cloud \ntops colder than -80C, and there have been occasional attempts at \neye formation. The various subjective and objective satellite \nintensity estimates have an unusually large spread from 62-102 kt, \nbut there has been little change in them since the previous \nadvisory. Thus, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is still northwestward or 325/7 kt. This motion \nshould continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest \nat a slower forward speed as Trudy shears apart vertically and \nbecomes steered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The new \nforecast track is similar to, but a little west of the previous \ntrack. On the forecast track, the hurricane will move away from \nsouthwest and west-central Mexico starting this afternoon and then \nmove slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday.\n\nThe hurricane is about to encounter increasing southwesterly shear \nand a drier and more stable airmass. The dynamical intensity \nguidance forecasts this combination to cause rapid weakening \nbeginning just after 12 h, and the intensity forecast follows the \ntrend of this guidance. The new forecast follows the previous \nforecast, showing Trudy degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone by \n60 hours and dissipating in 3 or 4 days. And as mentioned \npreviously, both of these could occur sooner than currently \npredicted.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm \nwarning area today.\n \n2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely\nin areas of onshore winds within the warning areas.\n \n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue to impact the \nsouthwest Mexican coast between Colima and Nayarit through today. \nThis rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern\nMexico and west-central Mexico during the next few days, causing\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  18/1500Z 19.1N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 19.7N 107.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 20.1N 107.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 20.3N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  21/0000Z 21.2N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/1200Z 21.7N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}