{"msg": "834\nAXPZ20 KNHC 180934\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0915 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 18.6N 106.3W at 18/0900 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110\nkt. Peak seas are 37 ft (11.0 m). Numerous moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 103W \nand 109W. A general northwestward motion is expected today, \nfollowed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the \nforecast track, the center of Trudy will remain near the coast of\nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico through this evening and \nthen move south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. \nLittle change in strength is expected this morning, but rapid \nweakening is forecast to begin by tonight. Swells generated by \nTrudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and \nwest-central Mexico. These swells will cause life-threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Trudy.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over NE \nMexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. These winds are supporting very rough seas. Winds \ntoday will be near storm-force, with seas peaking around 20 ft. \nGales and very rough seas will prevail tonight through Tue \nnight. Fresh to near gale-force winds and rough seas will persist\nthrough the remainder of next week.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N99W and from \n09N107W to 08N124W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N127W to beyond \n06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 02N to 14N and east of 98W and from 03N to 10N and \nbetween 105W and 120W. Similar convection is seen from 04N to 10N\nand west of 127W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy off SW Mexico and the Gale Warning in the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec.\nAway from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a moderate \npressure gradient between strong high pressure over the High Plains \nof the western United States and lower pressures in NW Mexico \nsupports moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the waters of \nthe Gulf of California north of 27N and also off Baja California \nNorte, especially north of Punta Eugenia. These winds were confirmed \nby a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-\n6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate \nseas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 19.5N 106.9W this\nafternoon, 20.2N 107.5W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm \nnear 20.4N 107.9W Mon afternoon, 20.7N 108.5W Tue morning, weaken\nto a remnant low near 21.1N 109.2W Tue afternoon, and 21.6N \n109.7W Wed morning. Trudy will dissipate early Thu. Aside from \nTrudy, strong high pressure over NE Mexico is forcing powerful \ngale force winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are\nsupporting very rough seas. Winds today will be near storm-\nforce, with seas peaking around 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas \nwill prevail tonight through Tue night. Fresh to near gale- force\nwinds and rough seas will persist through the remainder of next \nweek. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form \nwell offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development\nthereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around \nthe middle of next week while it moves westward to west- \nnorthwestward, well south of Mexico. There is a high chance of \ntropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nStrong high pressure over NE Mexico supports a large area of \nfresh to strong gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Fresh to strong northerly winds are spilling into the \noffshore waters of Guatemala, along with rough to very rough seas to \n15 ft. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds \nprevail. Seas of 6-8 ft are occurring between Ecuador and the \nGalapagos Islands, while seas of 3-6 ft are found in the rest of the \nbasin.\nFor the forecast, a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec will support fresh to strong N winds and very rough \nseas across the offshore Guatemala waters into tonight, with \nrough seas then continuing through Tue night. Large SW swell will\ngradually decay south of the equator into tonight. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail during \nthe next several days. Looking ahead, winds may pulse to fresh \nto locally strong in the Gulf of Papagayo starting midweek into \nlate this week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA strong ridge centered well north of our waters extends\nsouthward, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds\nnorth of 06N and west of 125W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.\nIn the eastern waters, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough \nseas have extended as far south of 08N and between 94W and 98W in \nassociation with the strong gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds \nand rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough and east of \n125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough to\nvery rough seas will affect the eastern waters through Mon in\nassociation with the strong gap wind event in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec. Elsewhere, large SW swell near the Equator will \ncontinue to diminish over the next day or so. Looking ahead, a cold\nfront will move S of 30N by early Tue, bringing fresh to locally\nstrong N winds Tue into Wed N of 27N, with rough to very rough \nseas N of 20N Tue into Thu. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219774627464642562", "issued": "2026-10-18T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219774627464642562"}