{"id": "1219762729691447298", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-18T09:00:00Z", "msg": "196\nWTPZ41 KNHC 180833\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n200 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026\n \nTrudy has strengthened a little more tonight. Satellite images show \nthat the eye has become more distinct and deep convection is better \norganized, especially on the west side of the circulation. The \nlatest satellite intensity estimates have increased slightly, and \nthe initial intensity is nudged up to 90 kt, in agreement with the \nTAFB Dvorak classification. The outer rainbands are affecting \nportions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, likely producing \nheavy rains and strong winds. These conditions will likely persist \nfor several more hours. A partial ASCAT-B pass that caught the east \nside of the circulation suggests that the hurricane has a slightly \nsmaller wind field than previously estimated, and the initial wind \nradii have been adjusted based on that information.\n \nTrudy has been moving northwestward at about 9 kt over the past 12 \nhours. This motion is expected to continue today, but a significant \nslowdown is forecast after that as the system weakens and is \nsteered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The NHC track \nforecast has been nudged to the left toward the latest EMXI, GDMI, \nand HCCA models. On the expected track, the hurricane will begin \npulling away from southwest and west-central Mexico tonight and then \nmove slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday.\n \nThe hurricane could strengthen a little more this morning, but a \nnotable increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear and intrusions \nof dry and stable air should cause Trudy to begin weakening later \ntoday. Given the expected hostile atmospheric conditions, the \nweakening is expected to be rapid, and Trudy is now forecast to \nbecome a post-tropical cyclone by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 or 4 \ndays. In fact, it would not be surprising if both of these occurred \nsooner than predicted.\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are likely \nwithin the hurricane warning area today.\n \n2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely\nin areas of onshore winds within the warning areas.\n \n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue across the\nsouthwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit today. This\nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides along\nand near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoac\u00e1n, Colima, and\nJalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern\nMexico and west-central Mexico during the next few days, causing\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  18/0900Z 18.6N 106.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 19.5N 106.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 20.2N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 20.4N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  20/1800Z 21.1N 109.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/0600Z 21.6N 109.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}