{"msg": "240\nAXNT20 KNHC 180428\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends across the\nsouthern Gulf tonight from near Naples, Florida, to 21N94W, then\nis nearly stationary southward across the central Bay of Campeche\nto the Mexican coast along 93.5W. Strong high pressure dominates\nmost of the eastern U.S. and extends across the Gulf behind the\nfront. This is forcing near storm-force NW winds behind the front\nfrom Coatzacoalcos to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico, where seas \nhave built to 18-22 ft. A broader area of gale force winds and \nvery rough seas are present behind the front offshore Mexico from \nTampico to the central Bay of Campeche. Frequent gusts in \nexcess of gale force are occurring within 90 nm of the NE Gulf \ncoast, where a Gale Warning is also in effect. Elsewhere across \nthe Gulf NE to N winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail, with seas of 8 to \n15 ft. These gales will continue into Mon morning, before the cold\nfront clears the basin and winds begin to diminish. Peak seas may\nexceed 25 ft in the Bay of Campeche late tonight and Sun, with \nrough seas prevailing across large portions of the basin through \nTue.\nAtlantic Gale Warning: This same cold front continues to move SE\nacross the western Atlantic waters, and extends from 31N75W to \nthe SE Florida coast near Lake Worth and across S Florida. Recent\nsatellite scatterometer data shows N winds 20 to 30 kt behind the\nfront, with frequent gusts over gale-force N of 28N and west of \n75W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Seas behind the front have\nbuilt quickly to 8 to 12 ft. The front will reach from 31N72W to \nthe Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W \nto western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate \nthrough mid week. Gale-force gusts are expected to continue across\nthe northwestern zones through Sun. Seas behind the front are \nexpected to build to 10 to 18 ft in N to NE swell on Sun, and \nhigher in the Gulfstream.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to \n08.5N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 07N17W to 05.5N32W to \n10N44W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to \n07N and E of 17W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 36W and 55W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on the Gale\nWarnings in effect for portions of the Gulf of America and the\nwestern Atlantic, behind a cold front.\nScattered to locally numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms \nare present along and within 60- nm S of the cold front, from SW\nFlorida to the Bay of Campeche. Recent buoy data shows seas are 7\nto 12 ft to the N of 25N and much higher across the SW Gulf, as\ndescribed above. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail south of the\nfront across the SE basin and the eastern Bay of Campeche, where\nseas are 3 to 6 ft and higher near the front. \nFor the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward,\nand slow down its forward progress as it reaches from the Florida\nStraits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then drift to the \nsoutheast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds\noff Veracruz will persist over the SW Gulf through Sun night, with\nsea subsiding below 20 ft. Gales will diminish in the west-\ncentral Gulf by early Sun, and frequent gusts to gale force \nelsewhere behind the front should diminish by Sun early in the \nafternoon. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere \nnorth of the front into early next week. Looking ahead, strong \nhigh pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind \nthe front, maintaining fresh NE to E winds mainly over the \neastern half of the Gulf into mid-week. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nDeep-layer moisture is interacting with an upper-level trough\nacross the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula to produce divergence is\ninducing scattered moderate convection across the Gulf of\nHonduras south of 18N. Meanwhile, favorable upper level conditions\nare supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms occurring in a\n180 nm wide band from NE Colombia to the Honduras-Nicaragau\nborder. To the east and northeast, a broad upper trough is\nproducing very stable conditions, and fair skies. At the surface,\nmoderate to fresh trades prevail across the central basin between\n64W and 78W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere gentle to\nmoderate easterly trades and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, as the cold front has moved across the Western \nAtlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient across the\nCaribbean has relaxed, supporting moderate to fresh winds \noffshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker\nwinds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through \nThu. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a \nsurface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight. \nThe Gulf of America cold front will likely reach western Cuba and\nthe Yucatan Channel by Tue then gradually dissipate. Large seas \nin northerly swell associated with the front are expected to move\nthrough the Yucatan Channel with hazardous conditions midday Sun \ninto early Tue.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on a Gale\nWarning for waters offshore NE Florida. \nScattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection\nis ongoing along and E of the cold front extending from  31N75W to \nthe SE Florida coast near Lake Worth. Convection is generally\noccurring from the cold front to the NW Bahamas and then\nnortheastward to near 31N70W. Light SE to S winds and seas 4 ft or\nless prevail E of the front to 65W. More scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection extends from 19N to 29N between 45W and\n57W, in association with a deep- layer trough across that area. \nFurther to the east, a broad area of scattered moderate convection\nis noted from 13N to 25N between 32W and 42W, in association with\nanother deep-layer trough. \nStrong high pressure located NW of the Azores extends a broad\nridge southwestward to the central Bahamas, but drapes across a\nseries of surface troughs from 20N and 30W between 38W and 60W.\nThe pressure gradient N of these trough is yielding moderate to\nfresh easterly winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N swell. S of the\narea, southward of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail\nacross the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are 4 to 6 ft between 30W\nand 65W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to\n7 ft are found N of 20N and E of 30W to Africa, with gentle to\nmoderate winds and seas found there S of 20N.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the strong cold front will continue\nto move southeastward and reach from 31N72W to the Straits of \nFlorida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba\nby early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate through mid week. \nStrong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas to 18 ft will\nfollow the front, affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through\nTue. Associated northerly swell will linger through much of the \nweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219714410495901698", "issued": "2026-10-18T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219714410495901698"}