{"msg": "648\nAXPZ20 KNHC 180319\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0305 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 18.2N 105.7W at 18/0300 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105\nkt. Peak seas are 34 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted within 180 nm of the center. A general\nnorthwestward motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a \nturn toward the west-northwest Sunday night. On the forecast \ntrack, the center of Trudy is approaching the coast of southwestern\nand west-central Mexico and will pass near the coast tonight and\nSunday. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. \nWeakening is expected to begin by Sunday afternoon. Swells \ngenerated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central\nMexico. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Trudy.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building\nover NE Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the \nGulf of Tehunatepec, along with very rough seas. Winds tonight \nand Sun will be near storm-force, with seas as high as 20 ft. \nGales and very rough seas will prevail Sun night through Tue \nnight. Fresh to near gale-force winds and rough seas will \npersist through the remainder of next week.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 09N94W and from \n09N111W to 08N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N126W to beyond\n06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 05N to 15N and E of 93W and from 01N to 10N and between\n101W and 119W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy off SW Mexico and the Gale Warning in the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec.\nAway from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a moderate\npressure gradient between a strong high pressure over the High\nPlains of the western United States and lower pressures in NW\nMexico support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the\nwaters of the Gulf of California north of 27N. Seas in these\nwaters are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nslight to moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 19.2N 106.4W Sun \nmorning, 20.1N 107.1W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical storm \nnear 20.6N 107.7W Mon morning, 20.9N 108.3W Mon evening, 21.1N \n108.7W Tue morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 21.5N 109.3W\nTue evening. Trudy will dissipate late Wed. Aside from Trudy, \nstrong high pressure building over NE Mexico is forcing powerful \ngale force winds through the Gulf of Tehunatepec, along with very\nrough seas. Winds tonight and Sun will be near storm- force, \nwith seas as high as 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas will \nprevail Sun night through Tue night. Fresh to near gale-force \nwinds and rough seas will persist through the remainder of next \nweek. Looking ahead, n area of low pressure is forecast to form \nwell offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development\nthereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around \nthe middle of next week while it moves westward to west- \nnorthwestward, well south of Mexico. There is a high chance of \ntropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nStrong high pressure building into NE Mexico supports a large \narea of fresh to strong gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong northerly winds are spilling in \nthe far offshore waters of Guatemala, along with rough seas to 10\nft. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds \nprevail. Seas of 6-8 ft are occurring between Ecuador and the \nGalapagos Islands, while seas of 3-6 ft are occurring in the rest\nof the basin.\nFor the forecast, a powerful early-season gap wind episode in \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec will support strong N winds and very \nrough seas to waters offshore Guatemala into Sun night, with \nrough seas then continuing through Tue night. Large SW swell \nwill gradually decay south of the equator into tonight.\nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will\nprevail during the next several days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 40N140W extends \nsoutheastward to the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific \nwaters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower\npressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to locally fresh\neasterly winds north of 06N and west of 125W. Moderate to locally\nrough seas are occurring in these waters. Moderate to locally \nfresh southerly winds and rough seas are found south of the \nmonsoon trough and east of 127W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, little change in winds is expected through\nearly next week. Large SW swell near the Equator will decay\ntonight. A weak cold front will move S of 30N by early Tue,\nbringing fresh to locally strong N winds Tue into Wed N of 28N,\nwith rough to very rough seas N of 20N Tue into Thu. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219700938161258498", "issued": "2026-10-18T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219700938161258498"}