{"id": "1219694066250350594", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-18T03:00:00Z", "msg": "854\nWTPZ41 KNHC 180244\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n900 PM CST Sat Oct 17 2026\n \nOver the last several hours the convection in the inner core of the \ncyclone has warmed slightly, though there are occasional hints of a \nragged eye.  Looking at the most recent microwave data, Trudy \nappears to be affected by some southwesterly shear, given the \nnortheastward tilt with height in the latest WSF-M pass. The \ninitial intensity for the cyclone is being held at 85 kt based on \na combination of recent objective and subjective estimates, and \nthe initial position is adjusted somewhat to the west based on the \nmicrowave data. \n \nThe hurricane is moving generally northwestward or 325 degrees/8 \nkt. The cyclone should continue to move in an overall northwestward \nmotion for the next 24-36 h as a weak low- to mid-level ridge \nbuilds over eastern Mexico. This continued motion would bring Trudy \nclose to the coast of west-central Mexico overnight and Sunday. \nAfterwards, the hurricane is expected to weaken and then \npredominately be steered by low-level flow, which will result in a \nturn toward the west-northwest away from the coast. As mentioned \nbefore, the initial position has been adjusted farther west, thus \nthe NHC track forecast has been moved slightly west as well. The \ncurrent track forecast is still in good agreement with the HCCA and \nGDMI forecast aids. \n \nThe environment around Trudy still supports some slight \nstrengthening through the night, but southwesterly shear is likely \nto keep any strengthening limited.  By midday Sunday, an increase \nin southwesterly shear along with a decrease in mid-level relative \nhumidity will result in a rapid weakening for Trudy. This weakening \ntrend is expected to persist even as the cyclone moves away from \nthe Mexican coast, and the new NHC forecast is lower than the last \none. The current NHC intensity forecast has Trudy become \npost-tropical around 72 h, however it is possible that the cyclone \ncould become post-tropical sooner based on the ECMWF simulated \nsatellite guidance.  \n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Trudy is forecast to strengthen as it moves near the coast of\nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico tonight and Sunday. Damaging\nhurricane-force winds are likely within the hurricane warning area.\n \n2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely\nin areas of onshore winds within the warning areas.\n \n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest \nMexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit through the weekend. This \nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides along \nand near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoac\u00e1n, Colima, and \nJalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n4. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern\nMexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  18/0300Z 18.2N 105.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 19.2N 106.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 20.1N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 20.6N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 20.9N 108.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  20/1200Z 21.1N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 21.5N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}