{"msg": "786\nAXPZ20 KNHC 172123\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 17.5N 105.0W at 17/2100 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105\nkt. Peak seas are 34 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is noted within 180 nm of the center. A general NW \nmotion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast \ntrack, the center of Trudy will pass near the coast of \nsouthwestern and west- central Mexico tonight into Sunday. Some \nstrengthening remains possible this evening, followed by \nweakening beginning by Sunday. Swells generated by Trudy are \naffecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will \nspread northward toward west-central Mexico through the weekend. \nThese swells will cause life- threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated \nhigher totals around 12 inches along and near the southwest Mexican \ncoast in Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may \nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in \nareas along steep terrain.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Trudy.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building\nsouthward through Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds\nthrough the Gulf of Tehunatepec, where very rough seas have\nbuilt. Winds tonight and Sun will be near storm-force, with seas\nas high as 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Sun\nnight through Tue night. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W and from 12N102W\nto 05N128W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is\nnoted from 07N to 13N E of 95W and from 01N to 08N between 105W\nand 122W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy and the Gale Warning for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAway from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate \nto locally fresh winds are present in the Gulf of California. \nSeas in these waters are 2-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight to moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy is near 17.5N 105.0W at 2 PM \nPDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is \n976 mb. Trudy will move to 18.6N 105.6W Sun morning, 19.8N 106.4W\nSun afternoon, and 20.7N 107.1W Mon morning. Trudy will weaken \nto a tropical storm near 21.0N 107.6W Mon afternoon, be near \n21.2N 108.1W Tue morning, and 21.5N 108.7W Tue afternoon. Trudy \nwill weaken to a remnant low just south of Baja California Sur \nWed afternoon. Strong high pressure building southward through \nMexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of \nTehunatepec, where very rough seas have built. Winds tonight and \nSun will be near storm-force, with seas as high as 20 ft. Gales \nand very rough seas will prevail Sun night through Tue night.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form \noffshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of \nnext week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to \nform during the latter half of next week while it moves generally\nwestward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central \nportions of the East Pacific. There is a high chance of tropical\nformation of this low over the next 7 days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGale-force gap winds NW of the region in the Gulf of Tehuantepec\nare filtering southward, leading to fresh N winds well offshore\nGuatemala, and seas are building to 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 5 to 7 ft\nin decaying long-period SW swell are also pressure S of the\nGalapagos Islands. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and \nmainly 3 to 6 ft seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, a powerful early-season gap wind episode in \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec will send strong N winds and very rough \nseas to waters offshore Guatemala into Sun night, with rough \nseas then continuing through Tue. Large SW swell will gradually \ndecay south of the equator into tonight. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe pressure gradient between the monsoon trough and high\npressure in the north Pacific is leading to a broad area of \nmoderate to locally fresh trades N of 06N and W of 120W. Seas in \nthese waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S winds and\n6 to 8 ft seas are found S of the monsoon trough, S of 120W. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, little change in winds is expected through\nearly next week. Large SW swell near the Equator will decay\ntonight. A weak cold front will move S of 30N by early Tue,\nbringing fresh to locally strong N winds Tue into Wed N of 28N,\nwith rough to very rough seas N of 20N Tue into Thu. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219630813388865538", "issued": "2026-10-17T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219630813388865538"}