{"id": "1219625229524959234", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-17T21:00:00Z", "msg": "983\nWTPZ41 KNHC 172054\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n300 PM CST Sat Oct 17 2026\n\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported that Trudy has \na 38 n mi wide eye open to the southwest. The maximum 700-mb flight \nlevel winds were 95 kt in the northwest eyewall, and the minimum \ncentral pressure is near 976 mb. Based on these data the initial \nintensity is increased to 85 kt. The aircraft also reported that \nthe center was a bit west of where satellite imagery suggests it is, \npossibly due to a tilted vortex, and the initial position has been \nnudged westward.\n \nThe hurricane continues moving northwestward or 320-325 degrees/9 \nkt. A continued northwestward to possibly north-northwestward \nmotion is expected during the next 24-36 h as a weak low- to \nmid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This motion would bring \nthe center of Trudy very close to the coast of west-central\nMexico tonight and Sunday. Thereafter, as Trudy weakens and becomes \nsteered mainly by low-level flow, a turn toward the west-northwest \nis expected, taking the cyclone away from the coast. The new track\nforecast is adjusted westward based on the more westward initial \nposition.\n\nConditions appear conducive for a little more strengthening through \ntonight, although moderate wind shear will likely limit how much \nstrengthening can occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast \ncalls for a peak intensity of 90 kt in 12 h.  After about 18 h, \nincreasing southwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level moisture \nnear the cyclone are likely to cause steady to rapid weakening even \nwhen the center would be moving away from the coast of Mexico. This \npart of the intensity forecast had been nudged downward to better \nmatch the pace of the weakening in the guidance. Current \nexpectations are that the system will stop producing convection\nbetween 72-96 h and decay to a remnant low pressure, and the global\nmodels forecast the circulation to weaken to a trough by 120 h.\n\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Trudy is forecast to strengthen as it moves near the coast of \nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico tonight and Sunday. Damaging \nhurricane-force winds are likely within the hurricane warning area.\n\n2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely \nin areas of onshore winds within the warning areas. \n \n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest \nMexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit through the weekend. \nThis rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides \nalong and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoac\u00e1n, Colima, \nand Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n4. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern\nMexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  17/2100Z 17.5N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 18.6N 105.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 19.8N 106.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 21.0N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  20/0600Z 21.2N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 21.5N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  21/1800Z 22.2N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}