{"msg": "089\nAXNT20 KNHC 171711\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Storm and Gale Warnings: A cold front extends \nfrom near Tampa, FL to the Bay of Campeche. A scatterometer pass \nat 1506 UTC today confirmed NW winds of up to 50 kts offshore \nVeracruz, along with a large swath of gale-force winds S of 26N \nand W of 94W. Recent altimeter data over the western Gulf along \nwith buoy observations over the northwest Gulf confirm rough to \nvery rough seas up to 14 ft follow the front. Frequent gusts to \ngale force are ongoing elsewhere north of the front. Very \ndangerous marine conditions are likely along the coast of Veracruz\nlater today, as winds out of the NW will funnel along the coast \nand increase to storm force, with seas building as high as 25 ft. \nThe storm and gale conditions and very rough seas will subside \nthrough late Sun night off Veracruz, but strong winds and rough \nseas may not subside until mid week. \nAtlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is moving off the coast of \nnortheast Florida. The front will reach from 31N72W to the \nStraits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to \nwestern Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate\nthrough mid week. Frequent gusts to gale force will follow the \nfront Sun over the waters north of 29N and west of 75W.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 08N23W. The ITCZ then\nextends from 08N23W to 11N39W. Scattered moderate convection is\noccurring from 04N to 11N and E of 24W. Scattered showers and\nisolated thunderstorms are occurring from 06N to 13N between 29W\nand 36W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nSee details above about the Storm and Gale Warnings in the Gulf of\nAmerica.\nShowers and thunderstorms are active along the cold front, \nreaching from near Tampa, Florida to the Bay of Campeche. \nAdditional showers and thunderstorms are active over the southeast\nGulf, ahead of an upper trough extending over the central Gulf. \nLight to gentle NE winds and slight seas are noted south and east\nof the front. \nFor the forecast, a cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to\nthe Chivela Pass in Mexico. Strong gale force winds and very \nrough seas follow the front over the west-central Gulf, with \nincreasing winds to minimal storm force in the SW Gulf near \nVeracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds with frequent gusts to gale \nforce follow the front elsewhere behind the front including over \nthe northern Gulf. The front will reach from Naples, Florida to \nCoatzacoalcos, Mexico by this evening. Storm force winds off \nVeracruz will diminish to strong gale this evening, while strong \ngale force winds persists in the west-central Gulf. Frequent gusts\nto gale force elsewhere behind the front should diminish by this \nevening. The front will then slow down as it reaches from the \nFlorida Straits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then drift to the \nsoutheast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gales will \ndiminish in the west-central Gulf by early Sun, and persist over \nthe SW Gulf through Sun night. Strong NE winds and rough seas will\npersist elsewhere north of the front. Looking ahead, strong high \npressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the \nfront, promoting fresh NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half \nof the Gulf into mid week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAbundant low level moisture is converging across the NW Caribbean\nand interacting with the upper trough across the central Gulf to \nproduce numerous moderate to strong convection across the \nnorthwest Caribbean north of 14N and west of 81W, as well as \nbetween Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. To the south, the East\nPacific monsoon trough enhances scattered strong convection across\nthe SW Caribbean S of 14N and W of 75W. At the surface, the \nseasonal pressure gradient across the region is leading to \nmoderate to fresh trades across the central basin, with locally\nstrong trades offshore Colombia. Seas are 3-6 ft across much of\nthe Caribbean, with 6-8 ft seas in the south-central basin.\nFor the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western \nAtlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient is \nrelaxing across the basin. This pattern will support moderate to \nfresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with \nmoderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia today. \nModerate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast \nelsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a \nsurface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean into the \nevening. Moisture associated with this feature will merge with the\ncold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The front will \nlikely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by Tue then \ndissipate. Large seas associated with the front will impact the \nYucatan Channel with hazardous conditions possible there.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee details above about the Gale Warning offshore NE Florida.\nA pre-frontal trough is analyzed between the Florida Peninsula and\nthe Bahamas, with scattered moderate convection occurring along\nand E of the trough to about 75W. A weak stationary front is \nanalyzed north of 28N between 47W and 65W, with a dissipating \nfrontal boundary to the south. Scattered moderate convection is \nseen from 24N to 29N between 45W and 50W, and also from 24N to 26N\nbetween 67W and 70W. Farther east, a trough is analyzed from \n18N39W to 29N38W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the\nnorth end of the trough as well as E of the trough to 30W. \nAnother surface trough is analyzed from 07N44W to 15N38W, and is \ninducing scattered moderate convection along and near the trough \naxis. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the \nAtlantic. Moderate to fresh trades and 5-8 ft seas prevail N of \n20N and E of 40W, while gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas \nprevail across the rest of the basin. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a pair of weak frontal boundaries \neast of 70W will merge then dissipate through today, ahead of a \nstrong cold front that moved off the coast of northeast Florida \nthis morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of \nFlorida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba\nby early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate into mid week. \nStrong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will\nfollow the front affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through \nTue, although seas will linger through mid-week. Frequent gusts to\ngale force are forecast behind the front north of 29N and west of\n74W tonight through Sun.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219581282644787202", "issued": "2026-10-17T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219581282644787202"}