{"msg": "868\nAXPZ20 KNHC 171542\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1530 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 16.6N 103.9W at 17/1500 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100\nkt. Peak seas are 34 ft. Numerous strong convection is within 120\nnm of the center. A general NW motion is forecast to continue \nthrough Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will \napproach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico today \nand pass near the coast tonight into Sunday. Some strengthening \nremains possible today, followed by weakening beginning by \nSunday. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the \ncoast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward \nwest-central Mexico through the weekend. These swells will cause \nlife- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Trudy.\nGale Warning: High pressure building into Mexico is forcing \nnear- gale force northerly winds southward into the Gulf of\nTehuantepec, building seas to 8 to 11 ft. Gales are developing\nthis morning, and should continue through Tue night, with peak\nwinds nearing 45 kt this afternon and tonight, along with seas of\nup to 20 ft through Sun night.  \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N89W and to 10N94W \nand then from 12N101W to 09N115W and to 05N129W. The ITCZ \nstretches from 05N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is found south of 13N and east of \n95W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present\nfrom 01N to 08N and between 105W and 122W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy and the Gale Warning for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAway from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the\nremnants of Simon are producing moderate to fresh winds and \nrough seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also present in \nthe Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 2-5 ft. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas \nprevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 17.1N 104.2W this\nafternoon, 18.6N 105.4W Sun morning approaching Cabo Corrientes,\n19.7N 106.1W Sun afternoon, 20.5N 106.9W Mon morning, weaken to \na tropical storm near 20.7N 107.4W Mon afternoon, and 20.9N \n108.1W Tue morning. Trudy will weaken to a remnant low over 21.1N\n109.3W early Wed over the entrance to the Gulf of California. In\naddition to Trudy, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is \nongoing. This early-season Tuhuantepecer should reach gale-force \nnortherlies this morning and likely persist through Tue night, \nbefore gradually diminishing on Wed. Looking ahead, an area of low \npressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the \nearly to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form during the latter half of next week \nwhile it moves generally westward to west- northwestward over the \neastern and central portions of the East Pacific. Formation chance \nis low through 48 hours, and high through 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to moderate winds are prevalent across the offshore \nwaters. However, stronger winds are found near the thunderstorms\nin the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia. Seas of \n6-8 ft are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands \nassociated with a long- period cross-equatorial swell. Seas of \n3-6 ft elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a strong early-season Tehuantepecer gap wind \nevent will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds over the W \nportion of the Guatemala and El Salvador zone tonight and Sun. \nLarge to very large seas from mixed NW swell from the \nTehuantepecer and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will also\nimpact this zone from tonight through Tue night. Large SW swell \nis impacting the equatorial zones now through Sat night. Finally,\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to \nimpact the offshore waters from Guatemala through Colombia over \nat least the next few days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 37N147W extends\nsoutheastward to the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific\nwaters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicts moderate \nto locally fresh easterly trade winds north of 06N and west of \n120W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh\nsoutherly winds and rough seas are found south of the monsoon \ntrough and east of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate to locally rough seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, little change in winds is expected during the next \nfew days. The large SW swell in our southern waters will gradually \ndiminish by Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front should reach our \nnorthern border on Tue. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds \nwill follow the front, diminishing Wed night. Large NW swell will \nalso accompany the front producing rough to very rough seas, \nsubsiding by late next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219563916514164738", "issued": "2026-10-17T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219563916514164738"}