{"msg": "552\nAXPZ20 KNHC 170923\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0905 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 16.0N 103.4W at 17/0900 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100\nkt. Peak seas are around 33 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is evident from 13N to 19N and between 101W and\n107W. A general NW motion is forecast to continue through \nSunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach \nthe coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico today and pass \nnear the coast tonight into Sunday. Some strengthening remains \npossible today, followed by weakening beginning by Sunday. Swells \ngenerated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central \nMexico through the weekend. These swells will cause life-threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Trudy.\nGale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over\nnorthern Mexico and lower pressures in the deep tropics support \nfresh to near gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer\nsatellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. This early-season\nTuhuantepecer should reach gale-force northerlies this morning and\nlikely persist through Tue night, before gradually diminishing \non Wed. Peak winds should be around 45 kt this afternoon with \nlargest seas near 17 ft from Sat afternoon through Sun night.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N89W and to 10N94W \nand then from 12N101W to 09N115W and to 05N129W. The ITCZ \nstretches from 05N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is found south of 13N and east of \n95W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present\nfrom 01N to 08N and between 105W and 122W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy and the Gale Warning issued for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAway from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the\nremnants of Simon continue in the offshore waters of Baja\nCalifornia Sur producing a few showers. Moderate to fresh winds\nand rough seas are still associated with this feature. The recent\nscatterometer satellite pass also showed moderate to locally\nfresh winds in the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are\n2-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 17.1N 104.2W this\nafternoon, 18.6N 105.4W Sun morning approaching Cabo Corrientes,\n19.7N 106.1W Sun afternoon, 20.5N 106.9W Mon morning, weaken to \na tropical storm near 20.7N 107.4W Mon afternoon, and 20.9N \n108.1W Tue morning. Trudy will weaken to a remnant low over 21.1N\n109.3W early Wed over the entrance to the Gulf of California. In\naddition to Trudy, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is \nongoing. This early-season Tuhuantepecer should reach gale-force \nnortherlies this morning and likely persist through Tue night, \nbefore gradually diminishing on Wed. Looking ahead, an area of low \npressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the \nearly to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form during the latter half of next week \nwhile it moves generally westward to west- northwestward over the \neastern and central portions of the East Pacific. Formation chance \nis low through 48 hours, and high through 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nSatellite-derived wind data indicate that gentle to moderate\nwinds are prevalent across the offshore waters. However, stronger\nwinds are found near the strong showers and thunderstorms in the\noffshore waters of Central America and Colombia. Seas of 6-8 ft \nare noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands associated \nwith a long- period cross-equatorial swell. Seas of 3-6 ft \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a strong early-season Tehuantepecer gap wind \nevent will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds over the W \nportion of the Guatemala and El Salvador zone tonight and Sun. \nLarge to very large seas from mixed NW swell from the \nTehuantepecer and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will also\nimpact this zone from tonight through Tue night. Large SW swell \nis impacting the equatorial zones now through Sat night. Finally,\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to \nimpact the offshore waters from Guatemala through Colombia over \nat least the next few days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 37N147W extends\nsoutheastward to the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific\nwaters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicts moderate \nto locally fresh easterly trade winds north of 06N and west of \n120W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh\nsoutherly winds and rough seas are found south of the monsoon \ntrough and east of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate to locally rough seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, little change in winds is expected during the next \nfew days. The large SW swell in our southern waters will gradually \ndiminish by Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front should reach our \nnorthern border on Tue. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds \nwill follow the front, diminishing Wed night. Large NW swell will \nalso accompany the front producing rough to very rough seas, \nsubsiding by late next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219489306143326210", "issued": "2026-10-17T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219489306143326210"}